Related papers: Is there a cap on longevity? A statistical review
In many developed countries, human life expectancy has doubled over the last 180 years from ~40 to ~80 years. Underlying this great advance is a change in how we age, yet our understanding of this change remains limited. Here we present a…
We study the dynamics of an age-structured population in which the life expectancy of an offspring may be mutated with respect to that of its parent. When advantageous mutation is favored, the average fitness of the population grows…
There are three independent techniques for determining the age of the universe: via cosmochronology of long-lived radioactive nuclei, via stellar modelling and population synthesis of the oldest stellar populations, and via the precision…
For right censored survival data, it is well known that the mean survival time can be consistently estimated when the support of the censoring time contains the support of the survival time. In practice, however, this condition can be…
A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…
Great apes, the other living members of our hominid family, become decrepit before the age of forty and rarely outlive their fertile years. In contrast, women - even in high mortality hunter-gatherer populations - usually remain healthy and…
A family of non-equilibrium statistical operators is introduced which differ by the system age distribution over which the quasi-equilibrium (relevant) distribution is averaged. To describe the nonequilibrium states of a system we introduce…
The provision of intergenerational care, via the Grandmother Hypothesis, has been implicated in the evolution of post-fertile longevity, particularly in humans. However, if grandmothering does provide fitness benefits, a key question is why…
The chronological age used in demography describes the linear evolution of the life of a living being. The chronological age cannot give precise information about the exact developmental stage or aging processes an organism has reached. On…
Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex…
Application of some basic notions and statistics of ageing distributions used in mathematical theory of reliability including the Gini-type index is discussed as a methodological tool for investigation of human population ageing and…
The analysis of a truncated sample can be hindered by censoring. Survival information may be lost to follow-up or the birthdate may be missing. The data can still be modeled as a truncated point process and it is close to a Poisson process,…
How self-organized networks develop, mature and degenerate is a key question for sociotechnical, cyberphysical and biological systems with potential applications from tackling violent extremism through to neurological diseases. So far, it…
We solve a lifecycle model in which the consumer's chronological age does not move in lockstep with calendar time. Instead, biological age increases at a stochastic non-linear rate in time like a broken clock that might occasionally move…
Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use, especially in cases of limited statistics when often one-sided limits are quoted. In order to estimate the stability of the…
\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…
Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of population growth hidden in the abundant and unstructured data from…
Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining…
We propose a method to quantify uncertainty around individual survival distribution estimates using right-censored data, compatible with any survival model. Unlike classical confidence intervals, the survival bands produced by this method…
We have simulated demographic changes in the human population using the Penna microscopic model, based on the simple Monte Carlo method. The results of simulations have shown that during a few generations changes in the genetic pool of a…