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We develop a novel Monte Carlo algorithm for the vector consisting of the supremum, the time at which the supremum is attained and the position at a given (constant) time of an exponentially tempered L\'evy process. The algorithm, based on…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-20 Jorge Ignacio González Cázares , Aleksandar Mijatović

Least squares Monte Carlo methods are a popular numerical approximation method for solving stochastic control problems. Based on dynamic programming, their key feature is the approximation of the conditional expectation of future rewards by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-28 Christian Bayer , Denis Belomestny , Paul Hager , Paolo Pigato , John Schoenmakers , Vladimir Spokoiny

We analyse convergence of a micro-macro acceleration method for the Monte Carlo simulation of stochastic differential equations with time-scale separation between the (fast) evolution of individual trajectories and the (slow) evolution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-01-08 Tony Lelièvre , Giovanni Samaey , Przemysław Zieliński

In this paper, we aim to compute numerical approximation integral by using an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling algorithm based on an iterative method which splits the strata following some quantities called…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Toni Sayah

In several implementations of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods it is natural, and important in terms of algorithmic efficiency, to exploit the information of the history of the samples to optimally tune their subsequent propagations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2014-02-07 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas , Alexandre Thiery

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are not only a popular tool in the analysis of state space models, but offer an alternative to MCMC in situations where Bayesian inference must proceed via simulation. This paper introduces a new SMC…

Computation · Statistics 2010-05-11 Paul Fearnhead , Benjamin M. Taylor

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Rocco Caprio , Adam M. Johansen

We present an adaptive multilevel Monte Carlo (AMLMC) algorithm for approximating deterministic, real-valued, bounded linear functionals that depend on the solution of a linear elliptic PDE with a lognormal diffusivity coefficient and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-12-07 Joakim Beck , Yang Liu , Erik von Schwerin , Raúl Tempone

We establish epigraphical and uniform laws of large numbers for sample-based approximations of law invariant risk functionals. These sample-based approximation schemes include Monte Carlo (MC) and certain randomized quasi-Monte Carlo…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Olena Melnikov , Johannes Milz

We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-05-29 Fergal P. Casey , Joshua J. Waterfall , Ryan N. Gutenkunst , Christopher R. Myers , James P. Sethna

When implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, perturbation caused by numerical errors is sometimes inevitable. This paper studies how perturbation of MCMC affects the convergence speed and Monte Carlo estimation accuracy.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-14 Tiangang Cui , Jing Dong , Ajay Jasra , Xin T. Tong

This paper introduces a class of Monte Carlo algorithms which are based upon the simulation of a Markov process whose quasi-stationary distribution coincides with a distribution of interest. This differs fundamentally from, say, current…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-14 Murray Pollock , Paul Fearnhead , Adam M. Johansen , Gareth O. Roberts

The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-08 Jim Griffin , Krys Latuszynski , Mark Steel

We consider the problem of improving kernel approximation via randomized feature maps. These maps arise as Monte Carlo approximation to integral representations of kernel functions and scale up kernel methods for larger datasets. Based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-31 Marina Munkhoeva , Yermek Kapushev , Evgeny Burnaev , Ivan Oseledets

The Self-Learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) method is a Monte Carlo approach that has emerged in recent years by integrating concepts from machine learning with conventional Monte Carlo techniques. Designed to accelerate the numerical study of…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2025-07-18 Gaopei Pan , Chuang Chen , Zi Yang Meng

Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-23 Simon Tindemans , Goran Strbac

We propose novel scale-invariant error estimators for the Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of mean and variance. For any linear transformation of the distribution of the quantity of interest, the computation cost across…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Sharana Kumar Shivanand , Bojana Rosić

We study the integration of functions with respect to an unknown density. We compare the simple Monte Carlo method (which is almost optimal for a certain large class of inputs) and compare it with the Metropolis algorithm (based on a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Peter Mathe , Erich Novak

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are ubiquitous tools for simulation-based inference in many fields but designing and identifying good MCMC samplers is still an open question. This paper introduces a novel MCMC algorithm, namely,…

This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-06 Jimmy Olsson , Olivier Cappé , Randal Douc , Eric Moulines