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We study generalized Bayesian inference under misspecification, i.e. when the model is 'wrong but useful'. Generalized Bayes equips the likelihood with a learning rate $\eta$. We show that for generalized linear models (GLMs),…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Rianne de Heide , Alisa Kirichenko , Nishant Mehta , Peter Grünwald

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Yutao Liu , Andrew Gelman , Qixuan Chen

This paper provides a general framework for Stein's density method for multivariate continuous distributions. The approach associates to any probability density function a canonical operator and Stein class, as well as an infinite…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-27 Guillaume Mijoule , Martin Raič , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-04 Willem van den Boom , Andrea Cremaschi , Alexandre H. Thiery

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-19 M. González , C. Minuesa , I. del Puerto , A. N. Vidyashankar

Bayesian inference under a set of priors, called robust Bayesian analysis, allows for estimation of parameters within a model and quantification of epistemic uncertainty in quantities of interest by bounded (or imprecise) probability.…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-15 Ivette Raices Cruz , Johan Lindström , Matthias C. M. Troffaes , Ullrika Sahlin

Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Abhisek Chakraborty , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

Bayesian nonparametric inferential procedures based on Markov chain Monte Carlo marginal methods typically yield point estimates in the form of posterior expectations. Though very useful and easy to implement in a variety of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-04 Julyan Arbel , Antonio Lijoi , Bernardo Nipoti

We study belief revision when information is represented by a set of probability distributions, or general information. General information extends the standard event notion while including qualitative information (A is more likely than B),…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-04 Adam Dominiak , Matthew Kovach , Gerelt Tserenjigmid

Measures of association in contingency tables, such as odds ratios and their generalizations, are often studied under different sampling schemes that either fix or leave random the margins of the table. While classical results show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Rafael Bassi Stern , Ruobin Gong , Joseph B. Kadane , Mark J. Schervish , Teddy Seidenfeld

In this paper, we consider objective Bayesian inference of the generalized exponential distribution using the independence Jeffreys prior and validate the propriety of the posterior distribution under a family of structured priors. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Aojun Li , Keying Ye , Min Wang

We introduce a distributionally robust maximum likelihood estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to infer the inverse covariance matrix of a $p$-dimensional Gaussian random vector from $n$ independent samples. The proposed model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-21 Viet Anh Nguyen , Daniel Kuhn , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani

The widely claimed replicability crisis in science may lead to revised standards of significance. The customary frequentist confidence intervals, calibrated through hypothetical repetitions of the experiment that is supposed to have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Luigi Pace , Alessandra Salvan

With the ubiquitous availability of unstructured data, growing attention is paid as how to adjust for selection bias in such non-probability samples. The majority of the robust estimators proposed by prior literature are either fully or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-08 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Tomoya Wakayama

The paper addresses joint sparsity selection in the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix for high-dimensional multivariate regression models in the Bayesian paradigm. The selected sparsity…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Srijata Samanta , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis

Ordinal response model is a popular and commonly used regression for ordered categorical data in a wide range of fields such as medicine and social sciences. However, it is empirically known that the existence of ``outliers'', combinations…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-15 Tomotaka Momozaki , Tomoyuki Nakagawa

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-16 Juho Timonen , Nikolas Siccha , Ben Bales , Harri Lähdesmäki , Aki Vehtari

We propose a Bayesian approach using improper priors for hierarchical linear mixed models with flexible random effects and residual error distributions. The error distribution is modelled using scale mixtures of normals, which can capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 F. J. Rubio , M. F. J. Steel

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Alex J. Chan , Ahmed M. Alaa , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar