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Related papers: A Multiscale Model for El Ni\~no Complexity

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El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term…

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. Here, we review two different…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-26 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Bernd Krauskopf , Jan Sieber

The Earth's climate system is a classical example of a multiscale, multiphysics dynamical system with an extremely large number of active degrees of freedom, exhibiting variability on scales ranging from micrometers and seconds in cloud…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-19 Gary Froyland , Dimitrios Giannakis , Benjamin Lintner , Maxwell Pike , Joanna Slawinska

We consider a highly idealized model for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, as introduced in an earlier paper. The model is governed by a delay differential equation for sea surface temperature in the Tropical Pacific, and it…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-01-13 Ilya Zaliapin , Michael Ghil

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal warming,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-29 J. Ludescher , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-22 Costas A. Varotsos , Arthur P. Cracknell

An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-05 Xianghui Fang , Nan Chen

We consider a delay differential equation (DDE) model for El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. We perform…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-29 Michael Ghil , Ilya Zaliapin , Sylvester Thompson

We analyse the transitions between established phases of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by surveying the daily data of the Southern Oscillation Index from an entropic viewpoint using the framework of stochastic Statistical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-15 Sílvio M. Duarte Queirós

Despite advances in climate modeling, simulating the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains challenging due to its spatiotemporal diversity and complexity. To address this, we build upon existing model hierarchies to develop a new…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-27 Jinyu Wang , Xianghui Fang , Nan Chen , Bo Qin , Mu Mu , Chaopeng Ji

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-04 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

While deep-learning models have demonstrated skillful El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts up to one year in advance, they are predominantly trained on climate model simulations that provide thousands of years of training data at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Jakob Schloer , Matthew Newman , Jannik Thuemmel , Antonietta Capotondi , Bedartha Goswami

The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that…

Anomalies during an El Nino are dominated by a single, irregularly oscillating, mode. Equatorial dynamics has been linked to delayed-oscillator models of this mode. Usually, the El Nino mode is regarded as an unstable mode of the coupled…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2008-02-03 Gerrit Burgers

We study the dynamics of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly using a model of the temporal patterns of two sub-regions, mimicking behaviour similar to El Ni\~no Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Specifically, we present the existence,…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-08-01 Chandrakala Meena , Elena Surovyatkina , Sudeshna Sinha

Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-26 Alexander Radebach , Reik V. Donner , Jakob Runge , Jonathan F. Donges , Jürgen Kurths

The dynamics of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are succinctly captured by the Recharge Oscillator (RO) framework. However, to simulate ENSO realistically, careful choices must be made regarding the RO's key parameters. In…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-16 Sooman Han , Alexey Fedorov , Jérôme Vialard

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-06-27 A. Mazzarella , A. Giuliacci , N. Scafetta

The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yanhai Gan , Yipeng Chen , Ning Li , Xingguo Liu , Junyu Dong , Xianyao Chen