Related papers: Small World Model for scaling up prediction result…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
Statistical models are used to produce estimates of demographic and global health indicators in populations with limited data. Such models integrate multiple data sources to produce estimates and forecasts with uncertainty based on model…
The small-world phenomenon has been already the subject of a huge variety of papers, showing its appeareance in a variety of systems. However, some big holes still remain to be filled, as the commonly adopted mathematical formulation…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
Accurate modelling of local population movement patterns is a core contemporary concern for urban policymakers, affecting both the short term deployment of public transport resources and the longer term planning of transport infrastructure.…
Based on the SEIR model and the modeling of urban transportation networks, a general-purpose simulator for the spread of epidemics in Chinese cities is built. The Chinese public transportation system between over 340 prefectural-level…
Understanding urban mobility requires models that capture how people interact with and navigate the built environment. We present a scalable, generalizable agent-based framework in which daily schedules emerge from the interplay between…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control policies, but may be hindered by incomplete…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spread through the world. The model combines the SEIR-based model for…
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 spreading, the number of studies on the epidemic models increased dramatically. It is important for policymakers to know how the disease will spread and what are the effects of the policies and…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…
We give exact relations which are valid for small-world networks (SWN's) with a general `degree distribution', i.e the distribution of nearest-neighbor connections. For the original SWN model, we illustrate how these exact relations can be…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…