Related papers: Small World Model for scaling up prediction result…
We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
In real-world applications, observations are often constrained to a small fraction of a system. Such spatial subsampling can be caused by the inaccessibility or the sheer size of the system, and cannot be overcome by longer sampling.…
Mathematical models of epidemics often use compartmental models dividing the population into several compartments. Based on a microscopic setting describing the temporal evolution of the subpopulation sizes in the compartments by stochastic…
Agent-based simulators (ABS) are a popular epidemiological modelling tool to study the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing an epidemic in a city (or a region). They provide the flexibility to accurately model a…
Research into, and design and construction of mobile systems and algorithms requires access to large-scale mobility data. Unfortunately, the wireless and mobile research community lacks such data. For instance, the largest available human…
Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…
The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal SEIQR epidemic model governed by a system of reaction-diffusion partial differential equations that incorporates optimal control strategies. The model captures the transmission dynamics of an…
This work is concerned with epidemiological models defined on networks, which highlight the prominent role of the social contact network of a given population in the spread of infectious diseases. In particular, we address the modelling and…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several…
The main aim to build models capable of simulating the spreading of infectious diseases is to control them. And along this way, the key to find the optimal strategy for disease control is to obtain a large number of simulations of disease…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the…
Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted…
The experience of Singapur and South Korea makes it clear that under certain circumstances massive testing is an effective way for containing the advance of the COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a modified SEIR model which takes into…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…