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We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIR epidemiology model that includes a partially specified vaccination policy and takes into account fatigue from protracted application of social distancing measures. The model assumes…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-17 Evangelos F. Magirou

Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and in particular social distancing, in conjunction with the advent of effective vaccines at the end of 2020, aspired for the development of a protective immunity shield against the spread of…

The limited availability of COVID-19 vaccines has prompted extensive research on optimal vaccination strategies. Previous studies have considered various non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccine efficacy, and distribution strategies. In…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-02-27 Iker Atienza-Diez , Gabriel Rodriguez-Maroto , Saúl Ares , Susanna Manrubia

Motivated by the issue of COVID-19 mitigation, in this work we tackle the general problem of optimally controlling an epidemic outbreak of a communicable disease structured by time since exposure, by the aid of two types of control…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-05-13 Alberto d'Onofrio , Mimmo Iannelli , Piero Manfredi , Gabriela Marinoschi

We evaluate the efficiency of various heuristic strategies for allocating vaccines against COVID-19 and compare them to strategies found using optimal control theory. Our approach is based on a mathematical model which tracks the spread of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-04 Jeta Molla , Alejandro Ponce de León Chávez , Takayuki Hiraoka , Tapio Ala-Nissila , Mikko Kivelä , Lasse Leskelä

During the Covid-19 pandemic a key role is played by vaccination to combat the virus. There are many possible policies for prioritizing vaccines, and different criteria for optimization: minimize death, time to herd immunity, functioning of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-18 Qi Luo , Ryan Weightman , Sean T. McQuade , Mateo Diaz , Emmanuel Trélat , William Barbour , Dan Work , Samitha Samaranayake , Benedetto Piccoli

Since early 2020, the world has been dealing with a raging pandemic outbreak: COVID-19. A year later, vaccines have become accessible, but in limited quantities, so that governments needed to devise a strategy to decide which part of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-04-13 Sander Tonkens , Paul de Klaver , Mauro Salazar

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-02 Calvin Tsay , Fernando Lejarza , Mark A. Stadtherr , Michael Baldea

In response to COVID-19, many countries have mandated social distancing and banned large group gatherings in order to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These social interventions along with vaccines remain the best way forward to reduce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-11 George Li , Ann Li , Madhav Marathe , Aravind Srinivasan , Leonidas Tsepenekas , Anil Vullikanti

The development and authorization of COVID-19 vaccines has provided the clearest path forward to eliminate community spread hence end the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the limited pace at which the vaccine can be administered…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-03-11 Glenn Young , Pengcheng Xiao , Kenneth Newcomb , Edwin Michael

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models…

The Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus represents an unprecedented crisis for our planet. It is a bane of the \"uber connected world that we live in that this virus has affected almost all countries and…

Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate…

General Economics · Economics 2022-01-19 Dongwoo Kim , Young Jun Lee

Massive vaccination against pandemics such as Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 presents several complexities. The criteria to assess public health policies are fundamental to distribute vaccines in an effective way in order to avoid as many…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-01 José Luis Sainz-Pardo , José Valero

The mitigation of an infectious disease spreading has recently gained considerable attention from the research community. It may be obtained by adopting sanitary measurements social rules, together with an extensive vaccination campaign.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-02-17 Francesco Petrizzelli , Pietro Hiram Guzzi , Tommaso Mazza

To mitigate the pandemic stemming from COVID-19, numerous nations have initiated extensive vaccination campaigns for their citizens since late 2020. While affluent countries have predominantly received vaccine allocations, fewer doses have…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-04-01 Hsin-Ju Chou , Jing-Yuan Ko , Sung-Po Chao

We use mobile device data to construct empirical interpersonal physical contact networks in the city of Portland, Oregon, both before and after social distancing measures were enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. These networks reveal how…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-12-17 Gavin S. Hartnett , Edward Parker , Timothy R. Gulden , Raffaele Vardavas , David Kravitz

Balancing social utility and equity in distributing limited vaccines represents a critical policy concern for protecting against the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. What is the nature of the trade-off between maximizing collective welfare and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-11-15 Lin Chen , Fengli Xu , Zhenyu Han , Kun Tang , Pan Hui , James Evans , Yong Li

How to strategically allocate the available vaccines is a crucial issue for pandemic control. In this work, we propose a mathematical framework for optimal stabilizing vaccine allocation, where our goal is to send the infections to zero as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-13 Qianqian Ma , Yang-Yu Liu , Alex Olshevsky

In this paper, we provide insights on how much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19. To this end, we develop a compartmental model that accounts for key aspects of the disease: 1) incubation time, 2) age-dependent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Sara Grundel , Stefan Heyder , Thomas Hotz , Tobias K. S. Ritschel , Philipp Sauerteig , Karl Worthmann
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