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Accurate parameter estimation of gravitational waves from coalescing compact binary sources is a key requirement for gravitational-wave astronomy. Evaluating the posterior probability density function of the binary's parameters (component…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2015-06-12 R. J. E. Smith , K. Cannon , C. Hanna , D. Keppel , I. Mandel

We introduce a technique for gravitational-wave analysis, where Gaussian process regression is used to emulate the strain spectrum of a stochastic background using population-synthesis simulations. This leads to direct Bayesian inference on…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2017-05-10 Stephen R. Taylor , Joseph Simon , Laura Sampson

Several rapid parameter estimation methods have recently been advanced to deal with the computational challenges of the problem of Bayesian inference of the properties of compact binary sources detected in the upcoming science runs of the…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-12-05 Lalit Pathak , Amit Reza , Anand S. Sengupta

The present operation of the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers in "enhanced" configuration brings the search for gravitational waves into a regime where detection is highly plausible. The development of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-03-13 John Veitch , Alberto Vecchio

Folding uncertainty in theoretical models into Bayesian parameter estimation is necessary in order to make reliable inferences. A general means of achieving this is by marginalizing over model uncertainty using a prior distribution…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-03-04 Christopher J. Moore , Christopher P. L. Berry , Alvin J. K. Chua , Jonathan R. Gair

Gravitational-wave parameter estimation for compact binary signals typically relies on sequential estimation of the properties of the detector Gaussian noise and of the binary parameters. This procedure assumes that the noise variance,…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-11-14 Cailin Plunkett , Sophie Hourihane , Katerina Chatziioannou

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful and mathematically transparent framework to tackle hypothesis testing, such as detection tests of gravitational waves emitted during the coalescence of binary systems using ground-based laser…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-13 John Veitch , Alberto Vecchio

In order to extract information about the properties of compact binaries, we must estimate the noise power spectral density of gravitational-wave data, which depends on the properties of the gravitational-wave detector. In practice, it is…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-06-18 Colm Talbot , Eric Thrane

Once upon a time, predictions for the accuracy of inference on gravitational-wave signals relied on computationally inexpensive but often inaccurate techniques. Recently, the approach has shifted to actual inference on noisy signals with…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-12-09 Carl-Johan Haster , Ilya Mandel , Will M. Farr

Inferring the properties of colliding black holes from gravitational-wave observations is subject to systematic errors arising from modelling uncertainties. Although the accuracy of each model can be calculated through comparison to…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-08-07 Charlie Hoy , Sarp Akcay , Jake Mac Uilliam , Jonathan E. Thompson

We present an exploratory investigation into using Simulation-based Inference techniques, specifically Flow-Matching Posterior Estimation, to construct a posterior density estimator trained using real gravitational-wave detector noise. Our…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-09-03 Vivien Raymond , Sama Al-Shammari , Alexandre Göttel

Gravitational-wave astronomy provides a promising avenue for the discovery of new physics beyond general relativity as it probes extreme curvature and ultra-relativistic dynamics. However, in the absence of a compelling alternative to…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-05-11 Lachlan Passenger , Shun Yin Cheung , Nir Guttman , Nikhil Kannachel , Paul D. Lasky , Eric Thrane

Understanding the properties of transient gravitational waves and their sources is of broad interest in physics and astronomy. Bayesian inference is the standard framework for astro-physical measurement in transient gravitational-wave…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2020-10-07 Rory Smith , Gregory Ashton , Avi Vajpeyi , Colm Talbot

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

The accuracy of Bayesian inference can be negatively affected by the use of inaccurate forward models. In the case of gravitational-wave inference, accurate but computationally expensive waveform models are sometimes substituted with faster…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-04-02 Miaoxin Liu , Xiao-Dong Li , Alvin J. K. Chua

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Teemu Härkönen , Simo Särkkä

Numerical relativity (NR) enables the study of physics in strong and dynamical gravitational fields and provides predictions for the gravitational-wave signals produced by merging black holes. Despite the impressive accuracy of modern…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-10-15 Richard Dyer , Christopher J. Moore

Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, which provide a Bayesian nonparametric approach to smoothing and interpolation. We introduce simple closed form kernels that can be used with Gaussian processes to discover patterns…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-03 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Ryan Prescott Adams

Many traditional algorithms applied in gravitational-wave astronomy rely on the assumption of Gaussian noise, a condition not always met. To meet this need, this study extends a robust statistical framework, advancing previous work on…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-02-26 Argyro Sasli , Minas Karamanis , Nikolaos Karnesis , Michael W. Coughlin , Vuk Mandic , Uroš Seljak , Nikolaos Stergioulas

Observation of gravitational waves from inspiralling binary black holes has offered a unique opportunity to study the physical parameters of the component black holes. To infer these parameters, Bayesian methods are employed in conjunction…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-06-04 Koustav Chandra , Archana Pai , Samson H. W. Leong , Juan Calderón Bustillo
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