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As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national levels. Currently, the epidemic…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-27 Le Bao , Xiaoyue Niu , Mary Mahy , Peter D. Ghys

Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-04 Timothy M Wolock , Seth R Flaxman , Jeffrey W Eaton

One of the cornerstones in combating the HIV pandemic is being able to assess the current state and evolution of local HIV epidemics. This remains a complex problem, as many HIV infected individuals remain unaware of their infection status,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-10-24 Pieter Libin , Nassim Versbraegen , Ana B. Abecasis , Perpetua Gomes , Tom Lenaerts , Ann Nowé

HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-05 Irene García Muñoz , Ian Hall , Thomas House

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…

Applications · Statistics 2007-09-14 Leontine Alkema , Adrian E. Raftery , Samuel J. Clark

This article introduces novel methodologies for estimating contextual exposure to HIV population viral load using GPS data. We propose a comprehensive analytical framework comprising (i) local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV population…

Reports from the Health Department in the Philippines show that cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) are increasing despite management and control efforts by the government. Worldwide, the Philippines has one of the fastest growing…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-14 Analaine May A. Tatoy , Roel F. Ceballos

Background: High HIV transmission persists in many U.S. jurisdictions despite prevention efforts. HIV self-testing offers a means to overcome barriers associated with routine laboratory-based testing but carries a risk of increasing…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-04-23 Alex Viguerie

Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-12 Steve Thompson

A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-09-29 L. F. Lopez , F. A. B. Coutinho , M. N. Burattini , E. Massad

Like many chronic diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is managed over time at regular clinic visits. At each visit, patient features are assessed, treatments are prescribed, and a subsequent visit is scheduled. There is a need for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-31 Arman Oganisian , Joseph Hogan , Edwin Sang , Allison DeLong , Ben Mosong , Hamish Fraser , Ann Mwangi

While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-28 Jessica Godwin , Adrian E. Raftery

This research reports on the relationship and significance of social-economic factors (age, sex, employment status) and modes of HIV/AIDS transmission to the HIV/AIDS spread. Logistic regression model, a form of probabilistic function for…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-27 A. O. Bello , F. A. Oguntolu , O. M. Adetutu , J. P. Ojedokun

We propose a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Then, based on data provided by the "Progress Report on the AIDS…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-05-30 Cristiana J. Silva , Delfim F. M. Torres

In this article, we propose a network spread model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread.…

Biological Physics · Physics 2007-08-29 Wen-Jie Bai , Tao Zhou , Bing-Hong Wang

Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed…

Applications · Statistics 2010-08-31 Michael G. B. Blum , Viet Chi Tran

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) are popular methods for empirically assessing the leakage of sensitive information in the training data through models or statistics learned from the data. The MIA vulnerability is often evaluated through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Joonas Jälkö , Gauri Pradhan , Ossi Räisä , Antti Honkela

Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence…

Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at national level, due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to simultaneously estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates. Recently, HIV…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-19 Le Bao , Ben Sheng , Xiaoyue Niu , Yuan Tang , Tim Brown , Peter D. Ghys , Jeff W. Eaton

Social context plays an important role in perpetuating or reducing HIV risk behaviors. This study analyzed the network and individual attributes that were associated with the likelihood that people who inject drugs (PWID) will engage in HIV…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-08-30 Valerie Ryan , TingFang Lee , Ashley L. Buchanan , Natallia V. Katenka , Samuel R. Friedman , Georgios Nikolopoulos