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In this paper, the local asymptotic estimation for the supremum of a random walk and its applications are presented. The summands of the random walk have common long-tailed and generalized strong subexponential distribution. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-17 Yuebao Wang , Hui Xu , Dongya Cheng , Changjun Yu

A tail empirical process for heavy-tailed and right-censored data is introduced and its Gaussian approximation is established. In this context, a (weighted) new Hill-type estimator for positive extreme value index is proposed and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-06 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir , Louiza Soltane

Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Wai-Keong Mok

We revisit the estimation of the extreme value index for randomly censored data from a heavy tailed distribution. We introduce a new class of estimators which encompasses earlier proposals given in Worms and Worms (2014) and Beirlant et al.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-19 Jan Beirlant , Julien Worms , Rym Worms

Let $X, X_1, X_2,...$ be a sequence of non-degenerate i.i.d. random variables with mean zero. The best possible weighted approximations are investigated in $D[0, 1]$ for the partial sum processes $\{S_{[nt]}, 0\le t\le 1\}$, where…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-12 Miklós Csörgő , Barbara Szyszkowicz , Qiying Wang

We study the asymptotic behavior of random variables of the form \begin{equation*} E_{\alpha}^i\left(x_1,\ldots,x_n\right)=\sum_{\left(b,d\right)\in \mathit{PH}_i\left(x_1,\ldots,x_n\right)} \left(d-b\right)^{\alpha} \end{equation*} where…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Benjamin Schweinhart

Let $f(n)$ be a strongly additive complex valued arithmetic function. Under mild conditions on $f$, we prove the following weighted strong law of large numbers: if $ X,X_1,X_2,... $ is any sequence of integrable i.i.d. random variables,…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-13 Istvan Berkes , Michel Weber

We use bias-reduced estimators of high quantiles, of heavy-tailed distributions, to introduce a new estimator of the mean in the case of infinite second moment. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established and checked,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-09 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir , Djabrane Yahia

We obtain asymptotic approximations for the probability density function of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means and arbitrary variances. As a consequence, we deduce asymptotic approximations for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-22 Robert E. Gaunt , Zixin Ye

Some new survival distributions are introduced based on a generalised exponential function. This class of distributions includes heavy-tailed generalisations of exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions. Properties of the distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-03 Rose Baker

Heavy-tailed fluctuations and power law statistics pervade physics, finance, and economics, yet their origin is often ascribed to systems poised near criticality. Here we show that such behavior can emerge far from instability through a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-10-15 Virgile Troude , Didier Sornette

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Jonas F. Frederiksen , Muneya Matsui , Rasmus S. Pedersen

Given $n$ independent random marked $d$-vectors (points) $X_i$ distributed with a common density, define the measure $\nu_n=\sum_i\xi_i$, where $\xi_i$ is a measure (not necessarily a point measure) which stabilizes; this means that $\xi_i$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Mathew D. Penrose

This work deals with the estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles for heavy tailed data,randomly right truncated by another heavy tailed variable. Under mild assumptions and the condition thatthe truncated variable is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-16 Julien Worms , Rym Worms

In this note we prove bounds on the upper and lower probability tails of sums of independent geometric or exponentially distributed random variables. We also prove negative results showing that our established tail bounds are asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-11 Yaonan Jin , Yingkai Li , Yining Wang , Yuan Zhou

We consider random orthonormal polynomials $$ P_{n}(x)=\sum_{i=0}^{n}\xi_{i}p_{i}(x), $$ where $\xi_{0}$, . . . , $\xi_{n}$ are independent random variables with zero mean, unit variance and uniformly bounded $(2+\ep_0)$-moments, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-02 Yen Do , Doron Lubinsky , Hoi H. Nguyen , Oanh Nguyen , Igor Pritsker

We extend Goldie's (1991) Implicit Renewal Theorem to enable the analysis of recursions on weighted branching trees. We illustrate the developed method by deriving the power tail asymptotics of the distributions of the solutions R to: R =_D…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-04 Predrag R. Jelenković , Mariana Olvera-Cravioto

In the paper we propose some new class of functions which is used to construct tail index estimators. Functions from this new class is non-monotone in general, but presents a product of two monotone functions: the power function and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-06 Vygantas Paulauskas , Marijus Vaičiulis

Both empirical and theoretical investigations of scale-free network models have found that large degrees in a network exert an outsized impact on its structure. However, the tools used to infer the tail behavior of degree distributions in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-31 Daniel Cirkovic , Tiandong Wang , Daren B. H. Cline

It was shown that when one disposes of a parametric information of the truncation distribution, the semiparametric estimator of the distribution function for truncated data (Wang, 1989) is more efficient than the nonparametric one. On the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-03 Saida Mancer , Abdelhakim Necir , Souad Benchaira