Related papers: Continuous-Time Higher Order Markov Chains: Formul…
Parameter estimation connects mathematical models to real-world data and decision making across many scientific and industrial applications. Standard approaches such as maximum likelihood estimation and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimate…
Finite order Markov models are theoretically well-studied models for dependent discrete data. Despite their generality, application in empirical work when the order is large is rare. Practitioners avoid using higher order Markov models…
We consider parametric version of fixed-delay continuous-time Markov chains (or equivalently deterministic and stochastic Petri nets, DSPN) where fixed-delay transitions are specified by parameters, rather than concrete values. Our goal is…
We introduce a class of stochastic processes based on symmetric $\alpha$-stable processes. These are obtained by taking Markov processes and replacing the time parameter with the modulus of a symmetric $\alpha$-stable process. We call them…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
We introduce a new method of estimation of parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. The method is based on estimating equations that are $U$-statistics in the observations. The $U$-statistics are based on higher order…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…
Stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks are widely used to capture intrinsic noise in cellular systems. The typical formulation of these models are based on Markov processes for which there is extensive research on efficient…
A new approach for optimal estimation of Markov chains with sparse transition matrices is presented.
A large class of linear memory differential equations in one dimension, where the evolution depends on the whole history, can be equivalently described as a projection of a Markov process living in a higher dimensional space. Starting with…
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting.…
The analysis of parametrised systems is a growing field in verification, but the analysis of parametrised probabilistic systems is still in its infancy. This is partly because it is much harder: while there are beautiful cut-off results for…
In environmental applications of extreme value statistics, the underlying stochastic process is often modeled either as a max-stable process in continuous time/space or as a process in the domain of attraction of such a max-stable process.…
Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect…
We study a stochastic model of protein dynamics that explicitly includes delay in the degradation. We rigorously derive the master equation for the processes and solve it exactly. We show that the equations for the mean values obtained…
A discrete time stochastic model for a multiagent system given in terms of a large collection of interacting Markov chains is studied. The evolution of the interacting particles is described through a time inhomogeneous transition…
The mathematical model of a linear system with the short memory about own stochastic behavior is proposed. It is assumed that the system is under a continual influence of independent stochastic impulses. In a short memory approximation the…
Gradient Symbolic Computation is proposed as a means of solving discrete global optimization problems using a neurally plausible continuous stochastic dynamical system. Gradient symbolic dynamics involves two free parameters that must be…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…