Related papers: Powers correlation analysis of non-stationary illi…
In this article, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the residual autocorrelations for periodic vector autoregressive time series models (PVAR henceforth) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations (i.e., weak PVAR). We then deduce the…
Financial time series exhibit two different type of non linear correlations: (i) volatility autocorrelations that have a very long range memory, on the order of years, and (ii) asymmetric return-volatility (or `leverage') correlations that…
We study the impact of volatility on intraday serial correlation, at time scales of less than 20 minutes, exploiting a data set with all transaction on SPX500 futures from 1993 to 2001. We show that, while realized volatility and intraday…
While the use of volatilities is pervasive throughout finance, our ability to determine the instantaneous volatility of stocks is nascent. Here, we present a method for measuring the temporal behavior of stocks, and show that stock prices…
The recurrence times between extreme events have been the central point of statistical analyses in many different areas of science. Simultaneously, the Poincar\'e recurrence time has been extensively used to characterize nonlinear dynamical…
This paper derives the expressions of correlations between prices of two assets, returns of two assets, and price-return correlations of two assets that depend on statistical moments and correlations of the current values, past values, and…
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility…
In structural credit risk models, default events and the ensuing losses are both derived from the asset values at maturity. Hence it is of utmost importance to choose a distribution for these asset values which is in accordance with…
In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To…
The measures of roughness of the volatility in the litterature are based on the realized volatility of high frequency data. Some authors show that this leads to a biased estimate, and does not necessarily indicate roughness of the…
The presence of significant cross-correlations between the synchronous time evolution of a pair of equity returns is a well-known empirical fact. The Pearson correlation is commonly used to indicate the level of similarity in the price…
This study analyses the duration dependence of events that trigger volatility persistence in stock markets. Such events, in our context, are monthly spells of contiguous price decline or negative returns for the S&P500 stock market index…
With the daily and minutely data of the German DAX and Chinese indices, we investigate how the return-volatility correlation originates in financial dynamics. Based on a retarded volatility model, we may eliminate or generate the…
This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…
This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval {\Delta} results in…
We analyse tick-by-tick data representing major cryptocurrencies traded on some different cryptocurrency trading platforms. We focus on such quantities like the inter-transaction times, the number of transactions in time unit, the traded…
Time averaging of weak values using the quantum transition path time probability distribution enables us to establish a general uncertainty principle for the weak values of two not necessarily Hermitian operators. This new principle is a…
Power law or generalized polynomial regressions with unknown real-valued exponents and coefficients, and weakly dependent errors, are considered for observations over time, space or space--time. Consistency and asymptotic normality of…
First, we give an asymptotic expansion of short-dated at-the-money implied volatility that refines the preceding works and proves in particular that non-rough volatility models are inconsistent to a power law of volatility skew. Second, we…
We develop a behavioral model for liquidity and volatility based on empirical regularities in trading order flow in the London Stock Exchange. This can be viewed as a very simple agent based model in which all components of the model are…