Related papers: Algebraic quantification of an active region's con…
We discuss the potential use of an algebraic method to compute the value of the solar axial dipole moment at solar minimum, widely considered to be the most reliable precursor of the activity level in the next solar cycle. The method…
The evolution of solar surface magnetic fields is essential for understanding solar activity and the underlying dynamic process. The surface flux transport (SFT) model is a widely used and effective tool for simulating this evolution.…
Solar active regions (ARs) determine solar polar fields and cause solar cycle variability within the framework of the Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo. The contribution of an AR to the polar field is measured by its dipole field, which results…
An algebraic method for the reconstruction and potentially prediction of the solar dipole moment value at sunspot minimum (known to be a good predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle) was suggested in the first paper in this…
The solar cycle is generated by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism which involves the induction and recycling of the toroidal and poloidal components of the Sun's magnetic field. Recent observations indicate that the Babcock-Leighton…
Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using…
Understanding and predicting solar-cycle variability requires accounting for nonlinear feedbacks that regulate the buildup of the Sun's polar magnetic field. We present a simplified but physically grounded algebraic approach that models the…
We investigate how representing active regions with bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) affects the end-of-cycle polar field predicted by the surface flux transport model. Our study is based on a new database of BMRs derived from the SDO/HMI…
The purpose of this paper is to show that large active regions (ARs) with different magnetic configurations have different contributions to short-term and long-term variations of the Sun. As a case study, the complex $\delta$-type AR 12673…
The solar dipole moment at activity minimum is a good predictor of the strength of the subsequent solar cycle. Through a systematic analysis using a state-of-the-art 2$\times$2 D solar dynamo model, we found that bipolar magnetic regions…
Context: Solar active regions (ARs) are key manifestations of the Sun's magnetic activity, displaying diverse spatial and temporal characteristics. Their formation and evolution play a crucial role in understanding the solar dynamo and…
We model the physical parameters of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 using a nonlinear dynamical mean-field dynamo model that includes the formation and evolution of bipolar magnetic regions (BMR). The Parker-type dynamo model consists of a complete…
Decay and dispersal of the tilted Bipolar Magnetic Regions (BMRs) on the solar surface are observed to produce large-scale poloidal field, which acts as the seed for the toroidal field and, thus, the next sunspot cycle. However, various…
We test recent claims that the polar field at the end of Cycle 23 was weakened by a small number of large, abnormally oriented regions, and investigate what this means for solar cycle prediction. We isolate the contribution of individual…
Converging flows are visible around bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) on the solar surface, according to observations. Average flows are created by these inflows combined, and the strength of these flows depends on the amount of flux present…
Context. Solar dipole captures important information about the large-scale solar magnetic field. The evolution of the solar magnetic field including the solar dipole can be simulated with a surface flux transport (SFT) model, but these…
Solar active regions (ARs) are the places hosting the majority of solar eruptions. Studying the evolution and morphological features of ARs is not only of great significance to the understanding of the physical mechanisms of solar…
The morphological asymmetry of leading and following sunspots is a well-known characteristic of the solar surface. In the context of large-scale evolution of the surface magnetic field, the asymmetry has been assumed to have only a…
Active regions (ARs) appear in the solar atmosphere as a consequence of the emergence of magnetic flux-ropes (FR). In this study, we use Bayesian methods to analyze line-of-sight magnetograms of emerging ARs. We employ a FR model consisting…
The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long term…