Related papers: Risks of heterogeneously persistent higher moments
This paper characterises dynamic linkages arising from shocks with heterogeneous degrees of persistence. Using frequency domain techniques, we introduce measures that identify smoothly varying links of a transitory and persistent nature.…
We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day,…
Realized moments of higher order computed from intraday returns are introduced in recent years. The literature indicates that realized skewness is an important factor in explaining future asset returns. However, the literature mainly…
This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…
Time variation and persistence are crucial properties of volatility that are often studied separately in energy volatility forecasting models. Here, we propose a novel approach that allows shocks with heterogeneous persistence to vary…
Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in…
We report evidence of a deep interplay between cross-correlations hierarchical properties and multifractality of New York Stock Exchange daily stock returns. The degree of multifractality displayed by different stocks is found to be…
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…
This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a…
Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion…
We study the temporal fluctuations in time-dependent stock prices (both individual and composite) as a stochastic phenomenon using general techniques and methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. In particular, we analyze stock price…
Trading pressure from one asset can move the price of another, a phenomenon referred to as cross impact. Using tick-by-tick data spanning 5 years for 500 assets listed in the United States, we identify the features that make cross-impact…
Flash crashes in financial markets have become increasingly important attracting attention from financial regulators, market makers as well as from the media and the broader audience. Systemic risk and propagation of shocks in financial…
We propose a new framework for measuring connectedness among financial variables that arises due to heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. To estimate connectedness in short-, medium-, and long-term financial cycles, we introduce a…
Cascades of events and extreme occurrences have garnered significant attention across diverse domains such as financial markets, seismology, and social physics. Such events can stem either from the internal dynamics inherent to the system…
We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…
Cross-sectional dispersion in firm-level realized skewness is significantly and negatively related to future stock market returns. The predictive power of skewness dispersion is robust to in-sample and out-of-sample estimation and is…
An asset pricing model using long-run capital share growth risk has recently been found to successfully explain U.S. stock returns. Our paper adopts a recursive preference utility framework to derive an heterogeneous asset pricing model…
This paper analyzes realized return behavior across a broad set of crypto assets by estimating heterogeneous exposures to idiosyncratic and systematic risk. A key challenge arises from the latent nature of broader economy-wide risk sources:…
In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To…