Related papers: Generalized Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference

We develop the framework of Linear Simulation-based Inference (LSBI), an application of simulation-based inference where the likelihood is approximated by a Gaussian linear function of its parameters. We obtain analytical expressions for…

We propose a method for inference in generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) and several extensions of these models. First, we extend the GLMM by allowing the distribution of the random components to be non-Gaussian, that is, assuming an…

Accurate simulation of complex physical systems enables the development, testing, and certification of control strategies before they are deployed into the real systems. As simulators become more advanced, the analytical tractability of the…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

In spite of the diverse literature on nonstationary spatial modeling and approximate Gaussian process (GP) methods, there are no general approaches for conducting fully Bayesian inference for moderately sized nonstationary spatial data sets…

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) is a method that merges principles from Bayesian statistics and reinforcement learning to make optimal decisions in uncertain environments. As a model-based RL method, it has two key components: (1)…

We consider geothermal inverse problems and uncertainty quantification from a Bayesian perspective. Our main goal is to make standard, `out-of-the-box' Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling more feasible for complex simulation models by…

Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it…

The direct detection of gravitational waves (GWs) by LIGO has strikingly confirmed general relativity (GR), but testing GR via GWs requires estimating parameterized post-Einsteinian (ppE) deviation parameters in waveform models. Traditional…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods form one of the algorithmic foundations of Bayesian inverse problems. The recent development of likelihood-informed subspace (LIS) methods offers a viable route to designing efficient MCMC methods for…

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…

We introduce a flexible empirical Bayes approach for fitting Bayesian generalized linear models. Specifically, we adopt a novel mean-field variational inference (VI) method and the prior is estimated within the VI algorithm, making the…

Bayesian models provide recursive inference naturally because they can formally reconcile new data and existing scientific information. However, popular use of Bayesian methods often avoids priors that are based on exact posterior…

Bayesian Generalized Nonlinear Models (BGNLM) offer a flexible nonlinear alternative to GLM while still providing better interpretability than machine learning techniques such as neural networks. In BGNLM, the methods of Bayesian Variable…

Sparsity has become a key concept for solving of high-dimensional inverse problems using variational regularization techniques. Recently, using similar sparsity-constraints in the Bayesian framework for inverse problems by encoding them in…