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Estimating causal effects in quasi-experiments with spatio-temporal panel data often requires adjusting for unmeasured confounding that varies across space and time. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible, nonparametric modeling approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Sofia L. Vega , Rachel C. Nethery

Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…

Physical phenomena are observed in many fields (sciences and engineering) and are often studied by time-consuming computer codes. These codes are analyzed with statistical models, often called emulators. In many situations, the physical…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-07 Hassan Maatouk , Xavier Bay

We present a novel approach for explaining Gaussian processes (GPs) that can utilize the full analytical covariance structure present in GPs. Our method is based on the popular solution concept of Shapley values extended to stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 Siu Lun Chau , Krikamol Muandet , Dino Sejdinovic

Adversarial examples are inevitable on the road of pervasive applications of deep neural networks (DNN). Imperceptible perturbations applied on natural samples can lead DNN-based classifiers to output wrong prediction with fair confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-04 Tao Bai , Jinqi Luo , Jun Zhao

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have excellent representative power and are state of the art classifiers on many tasks. However, they often do not capture their own uncertainties well making them less robust in the real world as they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-11 John Bradshaw , Alexander G. de G. Matthews , Zoubin Ghahramani

Gaussian process (GP) models have received increasing attention in recent years due to their superb prediction accuracy and modeling flexibility. To address the computational burdens of GP models for large-scale datasets, distributed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-11 Haoyuan Chen , Rui Tuo

In head-to-head racing, an accurate model of interactive behavior of the opposing target vehicle (TV) is required to perform tightly constrained, but highly rewarding maneuvers such as overtaking. However, such information is not typically…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Edward L. Zhu , Finn Lukas Busch , Jake Johnson , Francesco Borrelli

Neural Networks have been shown to be sensitive to common perturbations such as blur, Gaussian noise, rotations, etc. They are also vulnerable to some artificial malicious corruptions called adversarial examples. The adversarial examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-10 Alfred Laugros , Alice Caplier , Matthieu Ospici

This paper revisits the robust overfitting phenomenon of adversarial training. Observing that models with better robust generalization performance are less certain in predicting adversarially generated training inputs, we argue that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Minxing Zhang , Michael Backes , Xiao Zhang

Several recent results provide theoretical insights into the phenomena of adversarial examples. Existing results, however, are often limited due to a gap between the simplicity of the models studied and the complexity of those deployed in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-05 Jeremias Sulam , Ramchandran Muthukumar , Raman Arora

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-17 Yun Yang , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-03 Syed Ali Asad Rizvi , Stephen J. Roberts , Michael A. Osborne , Favour Nyikosa

Over the past decade, a number of algorithms for full-field elastic strain estimation from neutron and X-ray measurements have been published. Many of the recently published algorithms rely on modelling the unknown strain field as a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-07-10 A. W. T. Gregg , J. N. Hendriks , C. M. Wensrich , N. O'Dell

Gaussian process (GP) priors are non-parametric generative models with appealing modelling properties for Bayesian inference: they can model non-linear relationships through noisy observations, have closed-form expressions for training and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-31 Gonzalo Rios

We study the model robustness against adversarial examples, referred to as small perturbed input data that may however fool many state-of-the-art deep learning models. Unlike previous research, we establish a novel theory addressing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Shufei Zhang , Kaizhu Huang , Zenglin Xu

We develop a Gaussian process ("GP") framework for modeling mortality rates and mortality improvement factors. GP regression is a nonparametric, data-driven approach for determining the spatial dependence in mortality rates and jointly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-13 Mike Ludkovski , Jimmy Risk , Howard Zail

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely used for regression and system identification due to their flexibility and ability to quantify uncertainty. However, their computational complexity limits their applicability to small datasets. Moreover…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Thore Wietzke , Knut Graichen

We introduce a probabilistic robustness measure for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), defined as the probability that, given a test point, there exists a point within a bounded set such that the BNN prediction differs between the two. Such a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-06 Luca Cardelli , Marta Kwiatkowska , Luca Laurenti , Nicola Paoletti , Andrea Patane , Matthew Wicker

Despite a large corpus of recent work on scaling up Gaussian processes, a stubborn trade-off between computational speed, prediction and uncertainty quantification accuracy, and customizability persists. This is because the vast majority of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Marcus M. Noack , Mark D. Risser , Hengrui Luo , Vardaan Tekriwal , Ronald J. Pandolfi