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Modeling the spatiotemporal nature of the spread of infectious diseases can provide useful intuition in understanding the time-varying aspect of the disease spread and the underlying complex spatial dependency observed in people's mobility…

In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, and virus-contact tracing can greatly reduce the spread of the virus during a pandemic. In the wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have…

Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…

A quantitative COVID-19 model that incorporates hidden asymptomatic patients is developed, and an analytic solution in parametric form is given. The model incorporates the impact of lockdown and resulting spatial migration of population due…

On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…

In this paper, we deal with the study of the impact of nationwide measures COVID-19 anti-pandemic. We drive two processes to analyze COVID-19 data considering measures. We associate level of nationwide measure with value of parameters…

In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…

The statistical dynamics of a pathogen within a population depend on a range of factors: population density, the effectiveness and investment into social distancing, public policy measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are…

With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…

An urgent problem in controlling COVID-19 spreading is to understand the role of undocumented infection. We develop a five-state model for COVID-19, taking into account the unique features of the novel coronavirus, with key parameters…

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on day-to-day life. Tackling the disease by providing the necessary resources to the affected is of paramount importance. However, estimation of the required resources is not a trivial…

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of…

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has affected millions of individuals around the world and has posed a significant challenge to global healthcare. From the early days of the pandemic, it became clear that it is highly contagious and that…

Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on…

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused tremendous amount of deaths and a devastating impact on the economic development all over the world. Thus, it is paramount to control its further transmission, for which purpose it…

When an epidemic spreads into a population, it is often unpractical or impossible to have a continuous monitoring of all subjects involved. As an alternative, algorithmic solutions can be used to infer the state of the whole population from…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has already taken millions of lives and damaged economies across the globe. Most COVID-19 deaths and economic losses are reported from densely crowded cities. It is comprehensible that the effective control and…

While several non-pharmacological measures have been implemented for a few months in an effort to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States, the disease remains a danger in a number of counties as restrictions…

In this work, we study the pandemic course in the United States by considering national and state levels data. We propose and compare multiple time-series prediction techniques which incorporate auxiliary variables. One type of approach is…