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Despite the widespread testing protocols for COVID-19, there are still significant challenges in early detection of the disease, which is crucial for preventing its spread and optimizing patient outcomes. Owing to the limited testing…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
In this work, we contribute the first visual open-source empirical study on human behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to investigate how compliant a general population is to mask-wearing-related public-health policy.…
We present an empirical algorithm to forecast the evolution of the number of COVID-19 symptomatic patients in the early stages of the pandemic spread and after strict social distancing interventions. The algorithm is based on a low…
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
Successful predictive modeling of epidemics requires an understanding of the implicit feedback control strategies which are implemented by populations to modulate the spread of contagion. While this task of capturing endogenous behavior can…
Early detection and isolation of COVID-19 patients are essential for successful implementation of mitigation strategies and eventually curbing the disease spread. With a limited number of daily COVID-19 tests performed in every country,…
The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…
As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…
During an infectious disease pandemic, it is critical to share electronic medical records or models (learned from these records) across regions. Applying one region's data/model to another region often have distribution shift issues that…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via…
With COVID-19 affecting every country globally and changing everyday life, the ability to forecast the spread of the disease is more important than any previous epidemic. The conventional methods of disease-spread modeling, compartmental…
Within the context that Greece promises a success story in the fight against the disease, this paper proposes a novel method to study the evolution of the Greek COVID-19 infection-curve in relation to the anti-COVID-19 policies applied to…
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges in modeling its complex epidemic transmissions, infection and contagion, which are very different from known epidemics. The challenges in quantifying COVID-19 complexities include…
Due to the characteristics of COVID-19, the epidemic develops rapidly and overwhelms health service systems worldwide. Many patients suffer from systemic life-threatening problems and need to be carefully monitored in ICUs. Thus the…
Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, has raised a calamitous situation all over the world and has become one of the most acute and severe ailments in the past hundred years. The prevalence rate of COVID-19 is rapidly rising every day…
To combat the recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), academician and clinician are in search of new approaches to predict the COVID-19 outbreak dynamic trends that may slow down or stop the pandemic. Epidemiological models like…