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Related papers: Model Compression for Dynamic Forecast Combination

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Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-30 Yuyang Wang , Alex Smola , Danielle C. Maddix , Jan Gasthaus , Dean Foster , Tim Januschowski

Large-sample data became prevalent as data acquisition became cheaper and easier. While a large sample size has theoretical advantages for many statistical methods, it presents computational challenges. Sketching, or compression, is a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-11 Alexander F. Lapanowski , Irina Gaynanova

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-08-26 T. N. Palmer , F. J. Doblas-Reyes , A. Weisheimer , G. J. Shutts , J. Berner , J. M. Murphy

Model compression is essential in the deployment of large Computer Vision models on embedded devices. However, static optimization techniques (e.g. pruning, quantization, etc.) neglect the fact that different inputs have different…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Fabio Montello , Ronja Güldenring , Simone Scardapane , Lazaros Nalpantidis

Using a time series model to mimic an observed time series has a long history. However, with regard to this objective, conventional estimation methods for discrete-time dynamical models are frequently found to be wanting. In fact, they are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Yingcun Xia , Howell Tong

This work explores the application of ensemble modeling to the multidimensional regression problem of trajectory prediction for vehicles in urban environments. As newer and bigger state-of-the-art prediction models for autonomous driving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Divya Thuremella , Yi Yang , Simon Wanna , Lars Kunze , Daniele De Martini

With large quantities of data typically available nowadays, forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), are regularly outperforming traditional univariate forecasting models that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Rakshitha Godahewa , Kasun Bandara , Geoffrey I. Webb , Slawek Smyl , Christoph Bergmeir

It is often reported in forecast combination literature that a simple average of candidate forecasts is more robust than sophisticated combining methods. This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "forecast combination puzzle". Motivated…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-05 Wei Qian , Craig A. Rolling , Gang Cheng , Yuhong Yang

Sharing forecasts of network timeseries data, such as cellular or electricity load patterns, can improve independent control applications ranging from traffic scheduling to power generation. Typically, forecasts are designed without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Jiangnan Cheng , Marco Pavone , Sachin Katti , Sandeep Chinchali , Ao Tang

In this work, we propose an ensemble forecasting approach based on randomized neural networks. Improved randomized learning streamlines the fitting abilities of individual learners by generating network parameters in accordance with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Grzegorz Dudek , Paweł Pełka

This paper is dedicated to an efficient compression of weights and optimizer states (called checkpoints) obtained at different stages during a neural network training process. First, we propose a prediction-based compression approach, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yuriy Kim , Evgeny Belyaev

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

This paper studies the application of ensembles composed of multi-output models for multi-step ahead forecasting problems. Dynamic ensembles have been commonly used for forecasting. However, these are typically designed for one-step-ahead…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-27 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo

Real-world time series often exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be captured in isolation. Global models that model past data from multiple related time series globally while producing series-specific forecasts locally are now…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Abishek Sriramulu , Christoph Bergmeir , Slawek Smyl

We present a method for storing multiple models within a single set of parameters. Models can coexist in superposition and still be retrieved individually. In experiments with neural networks, we show that a surprisingly large number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-18 Brian Cheung , Alex Terekhov , Yubei Chen , Pulkit Agrawal , Bruno Olshausen

Weather and climate simulations produce petabytes of high-resolution data that are later analyzed by researchers in order to understand climate change or severe weather. We propose a new method of compressing this multidimensional weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-17 Langwen Huang , Torsten Hoefler

Many applications require the collection of data on different variables or measurements over many system performance metrics. We term those broadly as measures or variables. Often data collection along each measure incurs a cost, thus it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Donghui Yan , Zhiwei Qin , Songxiang Gu , Haiping Xu , Ming Shao

To address the common problem of high dimensionality in tensor regressions, we introduce a generalized tensor random projection method that embeds high-dimensional tensor-valued covariates into low-dimensional subspaces with minimal loss of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-03 Roberto Casarin , Radu Craiu , Qing Wang

Ensemble forecasting is a technique devised to palliate sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems. The basic idea to avoid this sensitivity is to run the model many times under several slightly-different initial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-26 F J Tapiador , R Verdejo

Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many domains. Boosted by the advances in Deep Learning algorithms, it has for instance been used to predict wind power for eolic energy production, stock market fluctuations, or motor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Luis P. Silvestrin , Leonardos Pantiskas , Mark Hoogendoorn