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The learning and evaluation of energy-based latent variable models (EBLVMs) without any structural assumptions are highly challenging, because the true posteriors and the partition functions in such models are generally intractable. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Fan Bao , Kun Xu , Chongxuan Li , Lanqing Hong , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

This paper focuses on the problem of predicting the future position of a target road user given its current state, consisting of position and velocity. A weighted average approach is adopted, where the weights are determined from data…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-04-22 Angelos Toytziaridis , Paolo Falcone , Jonas Sjöberg

Nonparametric estimators of a regression function with circular response and Rd-valued predictor are considered in this work. Local polynomial type estimators are proposed and studied. Expressions for their asymptotic biases and variances…

This study proposes sparse estimation methods for the generalized linear models, which run one of least angle regression (LARS) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in the tangent space of the manifold of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-20 Yoshihiro Hirose

Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-16 Joshua C. C. Chan

Gaussian processes (GPs) have gained popularity as flexible machine learning models for regression and function approximation with an in-built method for uncertainty quantification. However, GPs suffer when the amount of training data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-26 Jonas Latz , Aretha L. Teckentrup , Simon Urbainczyk

Image representations (artificial or biological) are often compared in terms of their global geometric structure; however, representations with similar global structure can have strikingly different local geometries. Here, we propose a…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-05-19 Jenelle Feather , David Lipshutz , Sarah E. Harvey , Alex H. Williams , Eero P. Simoncelli

We propose the Bayesian adaptive Lasso (BaLasso) for variable selection and coefficient estimation in linear regression. The BaLasso is adaptive to the signal level by adopting different shrinkage for different coefficients. Furthermore, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-09-14 Chenlei Leng , Minh Ngoc Tran , David Nott

The main goal of this paper is to develop a methodology for estimating time varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) models with a timeinvariant long-run relationship between endogenous variables and changes in exogenous…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-08-04 Denis Belomestny , Ekaterina Krymova , Andrey Polbin

This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-06-10 Vladimir Spokoiny

We consider a three-level meta-analysis of standardized mean differences. The standard method of estimation uses inverse-variance weights and REML/PL estimation of variance components for the random effects. We introduce new moment-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Elena Kulinskaya , David C. Hoaglin

Efron et al. (2004) introduced least angle regression (LAR) as an algorithm for linear predictions, intended as an alternative to forward selection with connections to penalized regression. However, LAR has remained somewhat of a "black…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Karl B. Gregory , Daniel J. Nordman

LiDAR sensors are widely used in autonomous vehicles to better perceive the environment. However, prior works have shown that LiDAR signals can be spoofed to hide real objects from 3D object detectors. This study explores the feasibility of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Chengzeng You , Zhongyuan Hau , Binbin Xu , Soteris Demetriou

Large scale Gaussian process (GP) regression is infeasible for larger data sets due to cubic scaling of flops and quadratic storage involved in working with covariance matrices. Remedies in recent literature focus on divide-and-conquer,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-28 Adam M. Edwards , Robert B. Gramacy

We reinterpret Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models as iterative refinement models to identify which design choices drive their quality-efficiency trade-off. Instead of treating VAR only as next-scale autoregression, we formalise it as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Steve Hong , Samuel Belkadi

High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Di Wang , Ruey S. Tsay

We consider the estimation of the transition matrix in the high-dimensional time-varying vector autoregression (TV-VAR) models. Our model builds on a general class of locally stationary VAR processes that evolve smoothly in time. We propose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-03 Xin Ding , Ziyi Qiu , Xiaohui Chen

Local spatial models such as Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) serve as instrumental tools to capture intrinsic contextual effects through the estimates of the local intercepts…

Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-05 Reza Hajargasht

Distributed lag models (DLMs) express the cumulative and delayed dependence between pairs of time-indexed response and explanatory variables. In practical application, users of DLMs examine the estimated influence of a series of lagged…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-23 Alastair Rushworth