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This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit…
Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…
We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…
We describe a new algorithm for the perfect simulation of variable length Markov chains and random systems with perfect connections. This algorithm, which generalizes Propp and Wilson's simulation scheme, is based on the idea of coupling…
The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…
In the continuity of a recent paper ([6]), dealing with finite Markov chains, this paper proposes and analyzes a recursive algorithm for the approximation of the quasi-stationary distribution of a general Markov chain living on a compact…
Non-linear Hawkes processes with memory kernels given by the sum of Erlang kernels are considered. It is shown that their stability properties can be studied in terms of an associated class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes,…
Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…
In this paper we fill a gap in the literature by providing exact and explicit expressions for the correlation of general Hawkes processes together with its intensity process. Our methodology relies on the Poisson imbedding representation…
Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the…
For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…
We prove regenerative properties for the linear Hawkes process under minimal assumptions on the transfer function, which may have unbounded support. These results are applicable to sliding window statistical estimators. We exploit…
The Hawkes process is a class of point processes whose future depends on their own history. Previous theoretical work on the Hawkes process is limited to a special case in which a past event can only increase the occurrence of future…
A divide-and-conquer approach to analyzing Markov chains (MCs) is not utilized as widely as it could be, despite its potential benefits. One primary reason for this is the fact that most MC decomposition approaches involve a complex and…
Statistical modeling of point patterns is an important and common problem in several areas. The Poisson process is the most common process used for this purpose, in particular, its generalization that considers the intensity function to be…
As a tool for capturing irregular temporal dependencies (rather than resorting to binning temporal observations to construct time series), Hawkes processes with exponential decay have seen widespread adoption across many application…
The Hawkes process is a self-exciting sample point process. It has wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. With the development of storage technology, data-driven models are attracting…
Stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks are widely used to capture intrinsic noise in cellular systems. The typical formulation of these models are based on Markov processes for which there is extensive research on efficient…
We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…