Related papers: On a Standard Method for Measuring the Natural Rat…
Holston, Laubach and Williams' (2017) estimates of the natural rate of interest are driven by the downward trending behaviour of 'other factor' $z_{t}$. I show that their implementation of Stock and Watson's (1998) Median Unbiased…
We consider mean squared estimation with lookahead of a continuous-time signal corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise. We show that the mutual information rate function, i.e., the mutual information rate as function of the…
We combine the unbiased estimators in Rhee and Glynn (Operations Research: 63(5), 1026-1043, 2015) and the Heston model with stochastic interest rates. Specifically, we first develop a semi-exact log-Euler scheme for the Heston model with…
In nonlinear deterministic parameter estimation, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is unable to attain the Cramer-Rao lower bound at low and medium signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) due the threshold and ambiguity phenomena. In order to…
The ubiquitous regression to the mean (RTM) effect complicates statistical inference regarding the relationship between baseline levels of a biological variable and its subsequent change. We demonstrate that common RTM correction methods…
We investigate schemes for Hamiltonian parameter estimation of a two-level system using repeated measurements in a fixed basis. The simplest (Fourier based) schemes yield an estimate with a mean square error (MSE) that decreases at best as…
Minimizing the Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a key objective in machine learning and is commonly used for imputing missing values. While this approach provides accurate point estimates, it introduces systematic biases in downstream analyses.…
We apply the procedure of Lee et al. to the problem of performing inference on the signal-noise ratio of the asset which displays maximum sample Sharpe ratio over a set of possibly correlated assets. We find a multivariate analogue of the…
We present the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE) method, an algorithm for generic high-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inference. MUSE performs approximate marginalization over arbitrary non-Gaussian latent parameter spaces,…
This article aims to reveal the mean-square convergence rate of the backward Euler method (BEM) for a generalized Ait-Sahaliz interest rate model with Poisson jumps. The main difficulty in the analysis is caused by the non-globally…
The inherent bias pathology of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is confirmed for models with unknown parameters $\theta$ and $\psi$ when MLE $\hat \psi$ is function of MLE $\hat \theta.$ To reduce $\hat \psi$'s bias the…
We propose a semiparametric Bayesian methodology for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) within the potential outcomes framework using observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our method introduces a Bayesian…
An empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) estimator is utilized for efficient inference in small-area estimation. To measure its uncertainty, we need to estimate its mean squared error (MSE) since the true MSE cannot generally be…
The realistic probability distributions of a previous article are applied to the reconstruction of tracks in constant magnetic field. The complete forms and their schematic approximations produce excellent momentum estimations, drastically…
Reduced-rank approach has been used for decades in robust linear estimation of both deterministic and random vector of parameters in linear model y=Hx+\sqrt{epsilon}n. In practical settings, estimation is frequently performed under…
Root-mean-square error (RMSE) remains the default training loss for data-driven precipitation models, despite precipitation being semi-continuous, zero-inflated, strictly non-negative, and heavy-tailed. This Gaussian-implied objective…
We derive rates of contraction of posterior distributions on nonparametric models resulting from sieve priors. The aim of the paper is to provide general conditions to get posterior rates when the parameter space has a general structure,…
Given a collection of observed signals corrupted with Gaussian noise, how can we learn to optimally denoise them? This fundamental problem arises in both empirical Bayes and generative modeling. In empirical Bayes, the predominant approach…
We investigate the frequentist properties of Bayesian procedures for estimation based on the horseshoe prior in the sparse multivariate normal means model. Previous theoretical results assumed that the sparsity level, that is, the number of…
We estimate the Hurst parameter $H \in (0,1)$ of a fractional Brownian motion from discrete noisy data, observed along a high frequency sampling scheme. When the intensity $\tau_n$ of the noise is smaller in order than $n^{-H}$ we establish…