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Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key discipline for computational modeling of complex systems, enhancing reliability of engineering simulations. In crashworthiness, having an accurate assessment of the behavior of the model uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Sergio Zlotnik , Xabier Larráyoz , Pedro Díez

Predicting the behavior of complex systems in engineering often involves significant uncertainty about operating conditions, such as external loads, environmental effects, and manufacturing variability. As a result, uncertainty…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-17 S. Marelli , S. Schär , B. Sudret

Machine learning methods for the construction of data-driven reduced order model models are used in an increasing variety of engineering domains, especially as a supplement to expensive computational fluid dynamics for design problems. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Stephen Guth , Alireza Mojahed , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

Predictive estimation, which comprises model calibration, model prediction, and validation, is a common objective when performing inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) in diverse scientific applications. These techniques typically require…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-17 Ningxin Yang , Truong Le , Lidija Zdravković , David M. Potts

State-of-the-art computer codes for simulating real physical systems are often characterized by a vast number of input parameters. Performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks with Monte Carlo (MC) methods is almost always infeasible…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-10-17 Rohit Tripathy , Ilias Bilionis

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

Deep learning-based surrogate models have demonstrated remarkable advantages over classical solvers in terms of speed, often achieving speedups of 10 to 1000 times over traditional partial differential equation (PDE) solvers. However, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Tailin Wu , Willie Neiswanger , Hongtao Zheng , Stefano Ermon , Jure Leskovec

Using a cyclotron based model problem, we demonstrate for the first time the applicability and usefulness of a uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach in order to construct surrogate models for quantities such as emittance, energy spread…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2018-12-13 Andreas Adelmann

We consider a multiphysics system with multiple component models coupled together through network coupling interfaces, i.e., a handful of scalars. If each component model contains uncertainties represented by a set of parameters, a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-07-28 Paul G. Constantine , Eric T. Phipps , Timothy M. Wildey

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an active area of research, and an essential technique used in all fields of science and engineering. The most common methods for UQ are Monte Carlo and surrogate-modelling. The former method is…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-01 Arnau Albà , Romana Boiger , Dimitri Rochman , Andreas Adelmann

Neural operators (NOs) provide fast, resolution-invariant surrogates for mapping input fields to PDE solution fields, but their predictions can exhibit significant epistemic uncertainty due to finite data, imperfect optimization, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Haoze Song , Zhihao Li , Mengyi Deng , Xin Li , Duyi Pan , Zhilu Lai , Wei Wang

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is receiving more and more attention for engineering applications in particular from robust optimization. Indeed, running a computer experiment only provides a limited knowledge in terms of uncertainty and…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for the reliable application of computational models in engineering and science. Among surrogate modeling techniques, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is particularly valuable for its…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-15 Jinglai Li , Hongqiao Wang

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-09 Sophia Sun

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods that can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Olga Graf , Pablo Flores , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Treating uncertainties in models is essential in many fields of science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex and computationally costly numerical models necessitates a combination of efficient model solvers, advanced…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-04-28 Linus Seelinger , Anne Reinarz , Jean Benezech , Mikkel Bue Lykkegaard , Lorenzo Tamellini , Robert Scheichl
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