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Related papers: Predicting Landfall's Location and Time of a Tropi…

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With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of…

Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-16 Jussi Leinonen , Ulrich Hamann , Ioannis V. Sideris , Urs Germann

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-05 Mariana Clare , Omar Jamil , Cyril Morcrette

This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-02-08 James B. Elsner , Thomas H. Jagger , Tyler Fricker

A deep learning model is presented to nowcast the occurrence of lightning at a five-minute time resolution 60 minutes into the future. The model is based on a recurrent-convolutional architecture that allows it to recognize and predict the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-16 Jussi Leinonen , Ulrich Hamann , Urs Germann

Post-disaster assessments of buildings and infrastructure are crucial for both immediate recovery efforts and long-term resilience planning. This research introduces an innovative approach to automating post-disaster assessments through…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Robinson Umeike , Thang Dao , Shane Crawford

This paper describes a novel machine learning (ML) framework for tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasting, combining multiple ML techniques and utilizing diverse data sources. Our multimodal framework, called Hurricast, efficiently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-04 Léonard Boussioux , Cynthia Zeng , Théo Guénais , Dimitris Bertsimas

This work proposes an innovative approach using machine learning to predict extreme events in time series of chaotic dynamical systems. The research focuses on the time series of the H\'enon map, a two-dimensional model known for its…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-07-11 Alexandre C. Andreani , Bruno R. R. Boaretto , Elbert E. N. Macau

We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-12-10 Jonathan A. Weyn , Dale R. Durran , Rich Caruana , Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting is crucial for early disaster warning and emergency decision-making. Numerous researchers have explored deep-learning methods to address computational and post-processing issues in operational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-31 Xinyu Wang , Lei Liu , Kang Chen , Tao Han , Bin Li , Lei Bai

Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-05-09 Martin Bergemann , Christian Jakob , Todd P. Lane

An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-06-19 Jonathan Lin , Raphael Rousseau-Rizzi , Chia-Ying Lee , Adam Sobel

Earthquake signals are non-stationary in nature and thus in real-time, it is difficult to identify and classify events based on classical approaches like peak ground displacement, peak ground velocity. Even the popular algorithm of STA/LTA…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-19 Tonumoy Mukherjee , Chandrani Singh , Prabir Kumar Biswas

Location prediction forecasts a user's location based on historical user mobility traces. To tackle the intrinsic sparsity issue of real-world user mobility traces, spatiotemporal contexts have been shown as significantly useful. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Bangchao Deng , Bingqing Qu , Pengyang Wang , Dingqi Yang , Benjamin Fankhauser , Philippe Cudre-Mauroux

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-28 P. Proskura , A. Zaytsev , I. Braslavsky , E. Egorov , E. Burnaev

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-15 Huan Zhang , Justin Finkel , Dorian S. Abbot , Edwin P. Gerber , Jonathan Weare

Advances in remote sensing technologies have made it possible to use high-resolution visual data for weather observation and forecasting tasks. We propose the use of multi-layer neural networks for understanding complex atmospheric dynamics…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-11-30 Seungkyun Hong , Seongchan Kim , Minsu Joh , Sa-kwang Song

Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-07-22 Øyvind Breivik , Ole Johan Aarnes , Saleh Abdalla , Jean-Raymond Bidlot , Peter A. E. M. Janssen

The prediction of tropical rain rates from atmospheric profiles poses significant challenges, mainly due to the heavy-tailed distribution exhibited by tropical rainfall. This study introduces over-parameterized neural networks not only to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-22 Hojun You , Jiayi Wang , Raymond K. W. Wong , Courtney Schumacher , R. Saravanan , Mikyoung Jun

Landslides, movement of soil and rock under the influence of gravity, are common phenomena that cause significant human and economic losses every year. Experts use heterogeneous features such as slope, elevation, land cover, lithology, rock…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-21 Ainaz Hajimoradlou , Gioachino Roberti , David Poole