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The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Annika Lang , Andreas Petersson

This paper introduces an open-ended sequential algorithm for computing the p-value of a test using Monte Carlo simulation. It guarantees that the resampling risk, the probability of a different decision than the one based on the theoretical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-30 Axel Gandy

In this paper we introduce a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for multi-dimensional SDEs driven by Brownian motions. Giles has previously shown that if we combine a numerical approximation with strong order of convergence…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-19 Michael B. Giles , Lukasz Szpruch

While generally considered computationally expensive, Uncertainty Quantification using Monte Carlo sampling remains beneficial for applications with uncertainties of high dimension. As an extension of the naive Monte Carlo method, the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Robert Hahn , Sebastian Schöps

Metastability is a formidable challenge to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In this paper we present methods for algorithm design to meet this challenge. The design problem we consider is temperature selection for the infinite swapping…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-12 Paul Dupuis , Guo-Jhen Wu

We consider the $\mathcal{H}^2$-formatted compression and computational estimation of covariance functions on a compact set in $\mathbb{R}^d$. The classical sample covariance or Monte Carlo estimator is prohibitively expensive for many…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-31 Jürgen Dölz

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that generates proposals for a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm by simulating the dynamics of a Hamiltonian system. However, HMC is sensitive to large time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-15 Xiaoyu Lu , Valerio Perrone , Leonard Hasenclever , Yee Whye Teh , Sebastian J. Vollmer

Numerical accuracy of floating point computation is a well studied topic which has not made its way to the end-user in scientific computing. Yet, it has become a critical issue with the recent requirements for code modernization to harness…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2018-11-12 Christophe Denis , Pablo De Oliveira Castro , Eric Petit

Augmenting the multi-step reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) has been a persistent challenge. Recently, verification has shown promise in improving solution consistency by evaluating generated outputs. However, current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Shengyu Feng , Xiang Kong , Shuang Ma , Aonan Zhang , Dong Yin , Chong Wang , Ruoming Pang , Yiming Yang

Monte Carlo simulations are widely employed to measure the physical properties of glass-forming liquids in thermal equilibrium. Combined with local Monte Carlo moves, the Metropolis algorithm can also be used to simulate the relaxation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-23 Ludovic Berthier , Federico Ghimenti Frédéric van Wijland

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for inference of complicated probabilistic models with intractable likelihoods using model simulations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of approximate Bayesian computation is often…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-17 Matti Vihola , Jordan Franks

Online variants of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm have recently been proposed to perform parameter inference with large data sets or data streams, in independent latent models and in hidden Markov models. Nevertheless, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-01 Sylvain Le Corff , Gersende Fort

We derive the improved estimators for general interactions and employ these for the continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo method. Using a worm algorithm we show how measuring higher-ordered correlators leads to an improved high-frequency…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2016-10-07 Patrik Gunacker , Markus Wallerberger , Tin Ribic , Andreas Hausoel , Giorgio Sangiovanni , Karsten Held

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander

In this paper we address the problem of rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed L\'evy processes with infinite activities. We propose a strongly efficient importance sampling algorithm that builds upon the sample path large deviations for…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-17 Xingyu Wang , Chang-Han Rhee

Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Qidong Yang , Weicheng Zhu , Joseph Keslin , Laure Zanna , Tim G. J. Rudner , Carlos Fernandez-Granda

We have developed an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm, which accelerates slow Monte Carlo dynamics in quasi-one-dimensional Ising spin systems. The loop algorithm of the quantum Monte Carlo method is applied to the classical spin models with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Tota Nakamura

In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-29 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

While multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations with random coefficients enjoy great popularity, combinations with spatial adaptivity seem to be rare. We present an adaptive MLMC…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-20 Ralf Kornhuber , Evgenia Youett

Monte Carlo algorithms simulate some prescribed number of samples, taking some random real time to complete the computations necessary. This work considers the converse: to impose a real-time budget on the computation, which results in the…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 Lawrence M. Murray , Sumeetpal Singh , Anthony Lee
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