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As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…
The computational complexity of naive, sampling-based uncertainty quantification for 3D partial differential equations is extremely high. Multilevel approaches, such as multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC), can reduce the complexity significantly,…
Derivative traders are usually required to scan through hundreds, even thousands of possible trades on a daily basis. Up to now, not a single solution is available to aid in their job. Hence, this work aims to develop a trading…
We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…
Future prediction is a fundamental principle of intelligence that helps plan actions and avoid possible dangers. As the future is uncertain to a large extent, modeling the uncertainty and multimodality of the future states is of great…
Computing risk measures of a financial portfolio comprising thousands of derivatives is a challenging problem because (a) it involves a nested expectation requiring multiple evaluations of the loss of the financial portfolio for different…
Estimating the probabilities of rare failure events is a key challenge in the reliability analysis of physical systems. Subset simulation (SS) is a very popular adaptive Monte Carlo method for this problem. In SS, the small failure…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…
The difficulty of multiple-choice questions (MCQs) is a crucial factor for educational assessments. Predicting MCQ difficulty is challenging since it requires understanding both the complexity of reaching the correct option and the…
Random field Monte Carlo (MC) reliability analysis is a robust stochastic method to determine the probability of failure. This method, however, requires a large number of numerical simulations demanding high computational costs. This paper…
Online planning in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) enables agents to make sequential decisions by simulating future trajectories from the current state, making it well-suited for large-scale or dynamic environments. Sample-based methods…
We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…
We consider the problem of forecasting debt recovery from large portfolios of non-performing unsecured consumer loans under management. The state of the art in industry is to use stochastic processes to approximately model payment behaviour…
Most scientific publications follow the familiar recipe of (i) obtain data, (ii) fit a model, and (iii) comment on the scientific relevance of the effects of particular covariates in that model. This approach, however, ignores the fact that…
Multilevel Splitting methods, also called Sequential Monte-Carlo or \emph{Subset Simulation}, are widely used methods for estimating extreme probabilities of the form $P[S(\mathbf{U}) > q]$ where $S$ is a deterministic real-valued function…
This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
We have extended the multilevel summation (MLS) method, originally developed to evaluate long-range Coulombic interactions in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations [Skeel et al., J. Comput. Chem., 23, 673 (2002)], to handle dispersion…
We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…