Related papers: Epidemics from the Eye of the Pathogen
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
We study the susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly subject to having given vertex degrees. In this model infective vertices infect each of their susceptible neighbours, and recover, at a constant…
Social networks are an important infrastructure for information, viruses and innovations propagation. Since users behavior has influenced by other users activity, some groups of people would be made regard to similarity of users interests.…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
A generalization of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) stochastic model for epidemics in sparse random networks is introduced which incorporates contact tracing in addition to random screening. We propose a deterministic…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours.…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…
Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…
It has been known that epidemic outbreaks in the SIR model on networks are described by phase transitions. Despite the similarity with percolation transitions, whether an epidemic outbreak occurs or not cannot be predicted with probability…
Epidemic models are increasingly used in real-world networks to understand diffusion phenomena (such as the spread of diseases, emotions, innovations, failures) or the transport of information (such as news, memes in social on-line…
Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been used for decades to understand epidemic outbreak dynamics. We develop an SIR model specifically designed to study the effects of population behavior with respect to health and…
We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…
This paper deals with the long-term behaviour and incidence of a vaccine-preventable contact disease, under the assumption that both vaccine protection and immunity after recovery are not lifelong. The mathematical model is developed in a…
The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to…
The size and shape of the region affected by an outbreak is relevant to understand the dynamics of a disease and help to organize future actions to mitigate similar events. A simple extension of the SIR model is considered, where agents…