Related papers: Identification at the Zero Lower Bound
The analysis of the effects of monetary policy shocks using the common econometric models (such as VAR or SVAR) poses several empirical anomalies. However, it is known that in these econometric models the use of a large amount of…
Applied work under interference typically models outcomes as functions of own treatment and a low-dimensional exposure mapping of others' treatments, even when that mapping may be misspecified. We ask what policy object such exposure-based…
In this study a new type of non-reflective boundary condition (NRBC) for the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) is proposed; the Non-equilibrium Symmetry Boundary Condition (NSBC). The idea behind this boundary condition is to utilize the…
We derive the first positivity bounds for low-energy Effective Field Theories (EFTs) that are not invariant under Lorentz boosts. "Positivity bounds" are the low-energy manifestation of certain fundamental properties in the UV -- to date…
The aim of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is to infer an agent's preferences from observing their behaviour. Usually, preferences are modelled as a reward function, $R$, and behaviour is modelled as a policy, $\pi$. One of the central…
We calibrate and test various variants of field theory models of the interest rate with data from eurodollars futures. A model based on a simple psychological factor are seen to provide the best fit to the market. We make a model…
We study how direct detection of the inflationary gravitational wave background constrains inflationary parameters and complements CMB polarization measurements. The error ellipsoids calculated using the Fisher information matrix approach…
Universal Basic Income (UBI) has recently been gaining traction. Arguments exist on both sides in favor of and against it. Like any other financial tool, UBI can be useful if used with discretion. This paper seeks to clarify how UBI affects…
This paper studies the robustness of estimated policy effects to changes in the distribution of covariates, a key determinant of the external validity of (quasi)-experimental results. I propose a novel robustness metric $\delta^*$ which…
We give a simpler proof, via query elimination, of a result due to O'Donnell, Saks, Schramm and Servedio, which shows a lower bound on the zero-error randomized query complexity of a function f in terms of the maximum influence of any…
Probabilities of Causation play a fundamental role in decision making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions such as monotonicity. In the absence of such…
We study the problem of finding the worst-case joint distribution of a set of risk factors given prescribed multivariate marginals and a nonlinear loss function. We show that when the risk measure is CVaR, and the distributions are…
We take inspiration from statistical physics to develop a novel conceptual framework for the analysis of financial markets. We model the order book dynamics as a motion of particles and define the momentum measure of the system as a way to…
In modern machine learning, models can often fit training data in numerous ways, some of which perform well on unseen (test) data, while others do not. Remarkably, in such cases gradient descent frequently exhibits an implicit bias that…
The goal of this article is to study fundamental mechanisms behind so-called indirect and direct data-driven control for unknown systems. Specifically, we consider policy iteration applied to the linear quadratic regulator problem. Two…
Unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects have been emphasized in recent policy evaluation literature. In this paper, we extend Lu and White (2014)'s testing method for unobserved heterogeneous treatment effects by developing nonparametric…
The study analyzed the impact of financial inclusion on the effectiveness of monetary policy in developing countries. By using a panel data set of 10 developing countries during 2004-2020, the study revealed that the financial inclusion…
Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) aims at classifying unlabeled objects by leveraging auxiliary knowledge, such as semantic representations. A limitation of previous approaches is that only intrinsic properties of objects, e.g. their visual…
To the knowledge of the author, this is the first time it has been shown that interest rates that are extremely high by modern standards (100% and higher) are necessary within a zero-sum monetary system, and not just driven by greed.…
We provide precise conditions for nonparametric identification of causal effects by high-frequency event study regressions, which have been used widely in the recent macroeconomics, financial economics and political economy literatures. The…