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Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…
Stochastic parameterizations are increasingly being used to represent the uncertainty associated with model errors in ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. One of the challenges associated with the use of these parameterizations is…
In this work, we introduce a generalized framework for multiscale state-space modeling that incorporates nested nonlinear dynamics, with a specific focus on Bayesian learning under switching regimes. Our framework captures the complex…
Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…
Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework,…
In this paper, we consider static parameter estimation for a class of continuous-time state-space models. Our goal is to obtain an unbiased estimate of the gradient of the log-likelihood (score function), which is an estimate that is…
We present a new strategy for filtering high-dimensional multiscale systems characterized by high-order non-Gaussian statistics using observations from leading-order moments. A closed stochastic-statistical modeling framework suitable for…
The abundance of new cosmological data becoming available means that a wider range of cosmological models are testable than ever before. However, an important distinction must be made between parameter fitting and model selection. While…
We propose two new Bayesian smoothing methods for general state-space models with unknown parameters. The first approach is based on the particle learning and smoothing algorithm, but with an adjustment in the backward resampling weights.…
Quality by design in pharmaceutical manufacturing hinges on computational methods and tools that are capable of accurate quantitative prediction of the design space. This paper investigates Bayesian approaches to design space…
In performing a Bayesian analysis, two difficult problems often emerge. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the resulting posterior distribution may be multi-modal or exhibit pronounced (curving) degeneracies.…
Bayesian inference involves two main computational challenges. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the posterior distribution may well be highly multi-modal: a regime in which the convergence to stationarity of…
We present a novel framework for performing statistical sampling, expectation estimation, and partition function approximation using \emph{arbitrary} heuristic stochastic processes defined over discrete state spaces. Using a highly parallel…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the state of a dynamic state-space system where the output is subject to quantization. We compare some classical approaches and a new development in the literature to obtain the filtering…
In this paper, we propose a new method to measure the probabilistic robustness of stochastic jump linear system with respect to both the initial state uncertainties and the randomness in switching. Wasserstein distance which defines a…
The study presents a novel approach for stochastic nonlinear model updating in structural dynamics, employing a Bayesian framework integrated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for parameter estimation by using an approximated…
The Kalman filter (KF) is used in a variety of applications for computing the posterior distribution of latent states in a state space model. The model requires a linear relationship between states and observations. Extensions to the Kalman…
State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…
Statistical learning additions to physically derived mathematical models are gaining traction in the literature. A recent approach has been to augment the underlying physics of the governing equations with data driven Bayesian statistical…