Related papers: The case for balanced hypothesis tests and equal-t…
Recent FDA guidance on adaptive clinical trial designs defines bias as "a systematic tendency for the estimate of treatment effect to deviate from its true value", and states that it is desirable to obtain and report estimates of treatment…
Corrected confidence intervals are developed for the mean of the second component of a bivariate normal process when the first component is being monitored sequentially. This is accomplished by constructing a first approximation to a…
This work proposes a cooperative strategy that employs deviated pursuit guidance to simultaneously intercept a moving (but not manoeuvring) target. As opposed to many existing cooperative guidance strategies which use estimates of…
Probability predictions from binary regressions or machine learning methods ought to be calibrated: If an event is predicted to occur with probability $x$, it should materialize with approximately that frequency, which means that the…
Establishing the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches widens their appeal and offers new understanding. In hypothesis testing, Bayesian model averaging addresses the problem that conclusions are sensitive to variable selection. But…
The optimal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, giving the maximum probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, is a key information-theoretic indicator of the difficulty of a binary hypothesis…
Prediction of future observations is an important and challenging problem. The two mainstream approaches for quantifying prediction uncertainty use prediction regions and predictive distributions, respectively, with the latter believed to…
Diagnostic tests are almost never perfect. Studies quantifying their performance use knowledge of the true health status, measured with a reference diagnostic test. Researchers commonly assume that the reference test is perfect, which is…
This paper raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators. Statistical…
Externally controlled trials (ECTs) are increasingly used when randomized controls are infeasible, unethical, or insufficient, including applications in rare diseases, oncology, pediatrics, and post-approval effectiveness research. Although…
We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To…
We revisit, in an original and challenging perspective, the problem of testing the null hypothesis that the mode of a directional signal is equal to a given value. Motivated by a real data example where the signal is weak, we consider this…
We propose a standardized version of fairness measures for continuous scores with a reasonable interpretation based on the Wasserstein distance. Our measures are easily computable and well suited for quantifying and interpreting the…
Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…
Recently, a generalized test approach is proposed by Sadooghi-alvandi et al. (2016) and a fiducial approach is proposed by Xu and Li (2018) to test the equality of coefficients in several regression models with unequal variances. In this…
This paper develops inference methods for ratios of deterministic trend slopes in systems of pairs of time series. Hypotheses based on linear cross-equation restrictions are considered with particular interest in tests that trend ratios are…
Causal inference problems often involve continuous treatments, such as dose, duration, or frequency. However, identifying and estimating standard dose-response estimands requires that everyone has some chance of receiving any level of the…
There has been concern in the literature about the methodology of using secondary calibration timepoints when estimating evolutionary divergence dates. Such timepoints are divergence time estimates that have been derived from one molecular…
A new method is proposed for the correction of confidence intervals when the original interval does not have the correct nominal coverage probabilities in the frequentist sense. The proposed method is general and does not require any…
Significant treatment effects are often emphasized when interpreting and summarizing empirical findings in studies that estimate multiple, possibly many, treatment effects. Under this kind of selective reporting, conventional treatment…