Related papers: Comparative evaluation of point process forecasts
One of the main tasks of actuaries and data scientists is to build good predictive models for certain phenomena such as the claim size or the number of claims in insurance. These models ideally exploit given feature information to enhance…
Critical points mark locations in the domain where the level-set topology of a scalar function undergoes fundamental changes and thus indicate potentially interesting features in the data. Established methods exist to locate and relate such…
Air pollution is a great concern because of its impact on human health and on the environment. Statistical models play an important role in improving knowledge of this complex spatio-temporal phenomenon and in supporting public agencies and…
Machine learning models are often evaluated using point estimates of performance metrics such as accuracy, F1 score, or mean squared error. Such summaries fail to capture the inherent variability induced by stochastic elements of the…
In many organisations, accurate forecasts are essential for making informed decisions for a variety of applications from inventory management to staffing optimization. Whatever forecasting model is used, changes in the underlying process…
The dynamics of a rain forest is extremely complex involving births, deaths and growth of trees with complex interactions between trees, animals, climate, and environment. We consider the patterns of recruits (new trees) and dead trees…
A scoring system is a simple decision model that checks a set of features, adds a certain number of points to a total score for each feature that is satisfied, and finally makes a decision by comparing the total score to a threshold.…
Species distribution modeling (SDM) plays a crucial role in investigating habitat suitability and addressing various ecological issues. While likelihood analysis is commonly used to draw ecological conclusions, it has been observed that its…
Generalized evolutionary point processes offer a class of point process models that allows for either excitation or inhibition based upon the history of the process. In this regard, we propose modeling which comprises generalization of the…
The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…
Probabilistic model checking computes probabilities and expected values related to designated behaviours of interest in Markov models. As a formal verification approach, it is applied to critical systems; thus we trust that probabilistic…
Comparative evaluation of forecasts of statistical functionals relies on comparing averaged losses of competing forecasts after the realization of the quantity $Y$, on which the functional is based, has been observed. Motivated by…
Different disciplines pursue the aim to develop models which characterize certain phenomena as accurately as possible. Climatology is a prime example, where the temporal evolution of the climate is modeled. In order to compare and improve…
Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…
Score matching estimators have gained widespread attention in recent years partly because they are free from calculating the integral of normalizing constant, thereby addressing the computational challenges in maximum likelihood estimation…
Safety-critical prediction systems, such as autonomous vehicles, weather forecasters, and medical monitors, commonly rely on probabilistic forecasters. These forecasters make predictions about possible future outcomes, and their quality and…
Probabilistic model checking is an approach to the formal modelling and analysis of stochastic systems. Over the past twenty five years, the number of different formalisms and techniques developed in this field has grown considerably, as…
The use of tiered warnings and multicategorical forecasts are ubiquitous in meteorological operations. Here, a flexible family of scoring functions is presented for evaluating the performance of ordered multicategorical forecasts. Each…
Predicting the results of soccer matches is of great interest. This is not only due to the popularity of the sport and the joy of private "betting rounds", but also due to the large sports betting market. Where previously expert knowledge…
We discuss the practice of directly or indirectly assuming a model for the number of points when modelling spatial point patterns even though it is rarely possible to validate such a model in practice since most point pattern data consist…