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In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…
Two major tasks in applications of hidden Markov models are to (i) compute distributions of summary statistics of the hidden state sequence, and (ii) decode the hidden state sequence. We describe finite Markov chain imbedding (FMCI) and…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning…
Historically time-reversibility of the transitions or processes underpinning Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) has played a key r\^ole in their development, while the self-adjointness of associated operators together with the use of…
In this paper, we present a new, optimization-based method to exhibit cyclic behavior in non-reversible stochastic processes. While our method is general, it is strongly motivated by discrete simulations of ordinary differential equations…
Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods,…
Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) represent hidden, multi\-stage cyberattacks whose long term persistence and adaptive behavior challenge conventional intrusion detection systems (IDS). Although recent advances in machine learning and…
In this work we present a flexible, probabilistic and reference-free method of error correction for high throughput DNA sequencing data. The key is to exploit the high coverage of sequencing data and model short sequence outputs as…
The study of animal behavioural states inferred through hidden Markov models and similar state switching models has seen a significant increase in popularity in recent years. The ability to account for varying levels of behavioural scale…
The design space of discrete-space diffusion or flow generative models are significantly less well-understood than their continuous-space counterparts, with many works focusing only on a simple masked construction. In this work, we aim to…
In this paper we present an algorithm for pricing barrier options in one-dimensional Markov models. The approach rests on the construction of an approximating continuous-time Markov chain that closely follows the dynamics of the given…
Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…
Searches for persistent gravitational radiation from nonpulsating neutron stars in young supernova remnants (SNRs) are computationally challenging because of rapid stellar braking. We describe a practical, efficient, semi-coherent search…
We present a nonparametric prior over reversible Markov chains. We use completely random measures, specifically gamma processes, to construct a countably infinite graph with weighted edges. By enforcing symmetry to make the edges undirected…
Empirical likelihood is a powerful semi-parametric method increasingly investigated in the literature. However, most authors essentially focus on an i.i.d. setting. In the case of dependent data, the classical empirical likelihood method…
We study a class of stochastic models of mass transport on discrete vertex set $V$. For these models, a one-parameter family of homogeneous product measures $\otimes_{i\in V} \nu_\theta$ is reversible. We prove that the set of mixtures of…
We study modifications of the Viterbi Training (VT) algorithm to estimate emission parameters in Hidden Markov Models (HMM) in general, and in mixure models in particular. Motivated by applications of VT to HMM that are used in speech…
An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…
Various and ubiquitous information systems are being used in monitoring, exchanging, and collecting information. These systems are generating massive amount of event sequence logs that may help us understand underlying phenomenon. By…
We provide a sufficient criterion for the unique parameter identification of combinatorially symmetric Hidden Markov Models based on the structure of their transition matrix. If the observed states of the chain form a zero forcing set of…