Related papers: Dynamic characterization of control SIR-type syste…
The main purpose of this paper is to study the local dynamics and bifurcations of a discrete-time SIR epidemiological model. The existence and stability of disease-free and endemic fixed points are investigated along with a fairly complete…
Infectious disease transmission dynamics are particularly sensitive to social contact patterns, and the precautions people take to limit disease transmission. It depends on the age distribution of the community. Thus, knowing the…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal SEIQR epidemic model governed by a system of reaction-diffusion partial differential equations that incorporates optimal control strategies. The model captures the transmission dynamics of an…
We propose an epidemiological model using an adaptive dynamic three compartment (with four states) SIR(D) model. Our approach is similar to non-parametric curve fitting in spirit and automatically adapts to key external factors, such as…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…
We show that precise knowledge of epidemic transmission parameters is not required to build an informative model of the spread of disease. We propose a detailed model of the topology of the contact network under various external control…
Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standard compartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel, it is…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
The metapopulation network model is effectively used to study the spatial spread of epidemics with individuals mobility. Considering the time-varying nature of individual activity and the preferences for attractive destinations in…
In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…
Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
This paper is based on the observation that, during Covid-19 epidemic, the choice of which individuals should be tested has an important impact on the effectiveness of selective confinement measures. This decision problem is closely related…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
The SEIR model is a compartmental model used to simulate the dynamics of an epidemic. In this chapter, we introduce two control functions in the compartmental SEIR model representing vaccination and plasma transfusion. Optimal control…
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or…
Given maximal social distancing duration and intensity, how can one minimize the epidemic final size, or equivalently the total number of individuals infected during the outbreak? A complete answer to this question is provided and…
We consider a SIR model with vaccination strategy on a sparse configuration model random graph. We show the convergence of the system when the number of nodes grows and characterize the scaling limits. Then, we prove the existence of…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…