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We present a theoretical framework that enables investigating rare transitions in a general model of an active particle in an external potential, with the thermal Active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Particle (AOUP) appearing as a special case. Using…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-20 Vito Seinen , Peter G. Bolhuis , Daan Crommelin , Sara Jabbari Farouji , Michel Mandjes

We study the asymptotic behavior of ruin probabilities, as the initial reserve goes to infinity, for a reserve process model where claims arrive according to a renewal process, while between the claim times the process has the dynamics of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-24 Ying He , Konstantin Borovkov

We model the time evolution of single win odds in Japanese horse racing as a stochastic process, deriving an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process by analyzing the probability dynamics of vote shares and the empirical time series of odds movements.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-05-22 Tomoya Sugawara , Shintaro Mori

Simulation of conditioned diffusion processes is an essential tool in inference for stochastic processes, data imputation, generative modelling, and geometric statistics. Whilst simulating diffusion bridge processes is already difficult on…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-24 Erlend Grong , Karen Habermann , Stefan Sommer

Ehrenfest urns with interaction that are connected in a ring is considered as a paradigm model for non-equilibrium thermodynamics and is shown to exhibit two distinct non-equilibrium steady states (NESS) of uniform and non-uniform particle…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-03 Chi-Ho Cheng , Pik-Yin Lai

Phylogenetic comparative methods for real-valued traits usually make use of stochastic process whose trajectories are continuous. This is despite biological intuition that evolution is rather punctuated than gradual. On the other hand,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-09-25 Krzysztof Bartoszek

The Inverse First Passage time problem seeks to determine the boundary corresponding to a given stochastic process and a fixed first passage time distribution. Here, we determine the numerical solution of this problem in the case of a two…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Alessia Civallero , Cristina Zucca

To provide an analytic verification of the nature of phase transition at the critical point of $P-V$ criticality, the original expressions of Ehrenfest equations have been introduced directly. By treating the cosmological constant and its…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2014-04-16 Jie-Xiong Mo , Wen-Biao Liu

In this paper, we analyze the use of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model dynamical systems subjected to bounded noisy perturbations. In order to discuss the main characteristics of this new approach we consider some basic models in…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-01-17 Tomás Caraballo , Renato Colucci , Javier López-de-la-Cruz , Alain Rapaport

We provide a complete description of the equilibrium fluctuations for diffusive symmetric exclusion processes with long jumps in contact with infinitely extended reservoirs and prove that they behave as generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2021-10-26 Cedric Bernardin , Patricia Goncalves , Milton Jara , Stefano Scotta

In this paper, we consider the problem of statistical inference for generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes of the type \[ X_{t} = e^{-\xi_{t}} \left( X_{0} + \int_{0}^{t} e^{\xi_{u-}} d u \right), \] where \(\xi_s\) is a L{\'e}vy process.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-12 Denis Belomestny , Vladimir Panov

In this paper, we investigate the parameter estimation for threshold Ornstein$\mathit{-}$Uhlenbeck processes. Least squares method is used to obtain continuous-type and discrete-type estimators for the drift parameters based on continuous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-28 Yuecai Han , Dingwen Zhang

We establish a diffusion approximation for a class of multi-agent controlled queueing systems, demonstrating their convergence to a system of interacting reflected Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) processes. The limiting process captures essential…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-12 Thoa Thieu , Roderick Melnik

We consider a tracer particle performing a random walk on a two-dimensional lattice in the presence of immobile hard obstacles. Starting from equilibrium, a constant force pulling on the particle is switched on, driving the system to a new…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-05 Dan Shafir , Alessio Squarcini , Stanislav Burov , Thomas Franosch

Diffusion approximations have been a popular tool for performance analysis in queueing theory, with the main reason being tractability and computational efficiency. This dissertation is concerned with establishing theoretical guarantees on…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-28 Anton Braverman

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process plays a major role in the analysis of the evolution of phenotypic traits along phylogenies. The standard OU process includes drift and stabilizing selection and assumes that species evolve independently.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-23 Krzysztof Bartoszek , Sylvain Glémin , Ingemar Kaj , Martin Lascoux

The entropy production rate is a central quantity in non-equilibrium statistical physics, scoring how far a stochastic process is from being time-reversible. In this paper, we compute the entropy production of diffusion processes at…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-19 Lancelot Da Costa , Grigorios A. Pavliotis

Consider a point particle moving through a Poisson distributed array of cubes all oriented along the axes - the random wind-tree model introduced in Ehrenfest-Ehrenfest (1912). We show that, in the joint Boltzmann-Grad and diffusive limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-06 Christopher Lutsko , Bálint Tóth

A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-08-17 J. B. Gomez , Y. Moreno , A. F. Pacheco

Understanding the footprints of chaos in quantum-many-body systems has been under debate for a long time. In this work, we study the echo dynamics of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) model with transverse field under effective time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-21 Silvia Pappalardi , Anatoli Polkovnikov , Alessandro Silva