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We consider discrete-time dynamics, for cascading failure in DC networks, whose map is composition of failure rule with control actions. Supply-demand at the nodes is monotonically non-increasing under admissible control. Under the failure…
We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information…
The existence of asymmetric information has always been a major concern for financial institutions. Financial intermediaries such as commercial banks need to study the quality of potential borrowers in order to make their decision on…
A new procedure is presented for the objective comparison and evaluation of default definitions. This allows the lender to find a default threshold at which the financial loss of a loan portfolio is minimised, in accordance with Basel II.…
The replacement closeout convention has drawn more and more attention since the 2008 financial crisis. Compared with the conventional risk-free closeout, the replacement closeout convention incorporates the creditworthiness of the…
Financial structures such as securitisations, insurance contracts, and other hierarchical claims systems can be interpreted as deterministic allocation mechanisms acting on stochastic inflow processes. This paper develops a general…
In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as Maximum Entropy currently used to reconstruct…
The global financial system can be represented as a large complex network in which banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions are interconnected to each other through visible and invisible financial linkages. Recently, a lot of…
We propose a model for the credit and liquidity risks faced by clearing members of Central Counterparty Clearing houses (CCPs). This model aims to capture the features of: gap risk; feedback between clearing member default, market…
Systemic risk is concerned with the instability of a financial system whose members are interdependent in the sense that the failure of a few institutions may trigger a chain of defaults throughout the system. Recently, several systemic…
Rapid growth of large loads led by data centers is straining grid capacity. These loads increasingly accept curtailment risk through non-firm interconnection agreements to gain faster grid access, expanding the pool of consumers subject to…
Exploring measures to improve financial networks and mitigate systemic risks is an ongoing challenge. We study claims trading, a notion defined in Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. For a bank $v$ in distress and a trading partner $w$,…
A debt swap is an elementary edge swap in a directed, weighted graph, where two edges with the same weight swap their targets. Debt swaps are a natural and appealing operation in financial networks, in which nodes are banks and edges…
Eisenberg and Noe (2001) analyze systemic risk for financial institutions linked by a network of liabilities. They show that the solution to their model is unique when the financial system is satisfies a regularity condition involving risk…
Power systems are increasingly operated in corrective rather than preventive security mode, which means that appropriate control actions must be taken immediately after a contingency has occurred. This paper proposes an online algorithm for…
Networked-guarantee loans may cause the systemic risk related concern of the government and banks in China. The prediction of default of enterprise loans is a typical extremely imbalanced prediction problem, and the networked-guarantee make…
The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent…
We study an online linear regression setting in which the observed feature vectors are corrupted by noise and the learner can pay to reduce the noise level. In practice, this may happen for several reasons: for example, because features can…
Many networked systems such as electric networks, the brain, and social networks of opinion dynamics are known to obey conservation laws. Examples of this phenomenon include the Kirchoff laws in electric networks and opinion consensus in…
The modeling of the probability of joint default or total number of defaults among the firms is one of the crucial problems to mitigate the credit risk since the default correlations significantly affect the portfolio loss distribution and…