Related papers: Age-Stratified COVID-19 Spread Analysis and Vaccin…
Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
The outbreak and propagation of COVID-19 have posed a considerable challenge to modern society. In particular, the different restrictive actions taken by governments to prevent the spread of the virus have changed the way humans interact…
Since COVID-19 vaccines became available, no studies have quantified how different disaster evacuation strategies can mitigate pandemic risks in shelters. Therefore, we applied an age-structured epidemiological model, known as the…
Background: Providing appropriate care for people suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus is a significant global challenge. Many individuals who become infected have pre-existing conditions that may…
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which was caused by SARS-CoV-2, has become a global public health concern. A great proportion of the world needs to be vaccinated in order to stop the rapid spread of the disease. In addition to prioritising…
Early detection and isolation of COVID-19 patients are essential for successful implementation of mitigation strategies and eventually curbing the disease spread. With a limited number of daily COVID-19 tests performed in every country,…
An epidemiological model is developed for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. A variant of the classical compartmental SEIR model, called the SEIQRDP model, is used. As South Africa is still in the early phases of the global COVID-19…
I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…
A study of changes in the transmission of a disease, in particular, a new disease like COVID-19, requires very flexible models which can capture, among others, the effects of non-pharmacological and pharmacological measures, changes in…
In this short note we model the region-wise trends of the evolution to COVID-19 infections using a stochastic SIR model. The SIR dynamics are expressed using \textit{It\^o-stochastic differential equations}. We first derive the parameters…
Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model…
We present a unifying, tractable approach for studying the spread of viruses causing complex diseases requiring to be modeled using a large number of types (e.g., infective stage, clinical state, risk factor class). We show that recording…
We consider the SEIRS compartment epidemiology model suitable for predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemy in the extreme limiting case of no acquired immunity. The disease-free and endemic fixed points are found and their stability…
Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…
We introduce a Bayesian sequential data assimilation method for COVID-19 forecasting. It is assumed that suitable transmission, epidemic and observation models are available and previously validated and the transmission and epidemic models…
In this study initially, we propose an age structured model and calculate the equilibrium points and basic reproduction number. Later we propose an optimal control problem to understand the roles of treatment in controlling the epidemic.…
In this paper, we examine cross-country differences, in terms of the age distribution of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) cases, and fatalities due to the novel COVID-19. By calculating conditional…
Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models with inter-individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection were proposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential element of the mathematical/statistical toolset…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…