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This tutorial contrasts probabilistic modeling and robust optimization to determine decisions in humanitarian logistics, specifically supply chains subject to adversarial (natural and human) disruptions. Natural disruptions induce dispatch…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-06 Justin Kilb , Daniel Bienstock , Alexandra M. Newman

Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Wenbin Zhou , Shixiang Zhu

Learning-based approaches to verifying unknown Markov decision processes (MDPs) often employ uncertain MDPs. These models use, for example, confidence intervals to capture transition uncertainty and allow synthesis of policies that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Yannik Schnitzer , Alessandro Abate , David Parker

Supply chain resilience analysis aims to identify the critical elements in the supply chain, measure its reliability, and analyze solutions for improving vulnerabilities. While extensive methods like stochastic approaches have been…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-22 Yaxin Pang , Shenle Pan , Eric Ballot

The conventional model for online planning under uncertainty assumes that an agent can stop and plan without incurring costs for the time spent planning. However, planning time is not free in most real-world settings. For example, an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-05 Christopher H. Lin , Andrey Kolobov , Ece Kamar , Eric Horvitz

Short-term forecasting models typically assume the availability of input data (features) when they are deployed and in use. However, equipment failures, disruptions, cyberattacks, may lead to missing features when such models are used…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-30 Akylas Stratigakos , Panagiotis Andrianesis

Both the level of conservativeness and the computational burden in robust optimization are critically influenced by uncertainty set design. However, contextual side information is rarely exploited in robust dispatch of power systems…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Zhaojun Ruan , Yulin Liu , Le Fu , Libao Shi

The resource management of a phase array system capable of multiple target tracking and surveillance is critical for the realization of its full potential. Present work aims to improve the performance of an existing method, time-balance…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Ömer Çayır , Çağatay Candan

Robust Markov decision processes (r-MDPs) extend MDPs by explicitly modelling epistemic uncertainty about transition dynamics. Learning r-MDPs from interactions with an unknown environment enables the synthesis of robust policies with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Yannik Schnitzer , Alessandro Abate , David Parker

The rapid influx of data-driven models into the industrial sector has been facilitated by the proliferation of sensor technology, enabling the collection of vast quantities of data. However, leveraging these models for failure detection and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Ali Beikmohammadi , Mohammad Hosein Hamian , Neda Khoeyniha , Tony Lindgren , Olof Steinert , Sindri Magnússon

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Dimitris Bertsimas , Benjamin Boucher

The optimization of composition and processing to obtain materials that exhibit desirable characteristics has historically relied on a combination of scientist intuition, trial and error, and luck. We propose a methodology that can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Julia Ling , Max Hutchinson , Erin Antono , Sean Paradiso , Bryce Meredig

In the wake of the highly electrified future ahead of us, the role of energy storage is crucial wherever distributed generation is abundant, such as in microgrid settings. Given the variety of storage options that are becoming more and more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-26 S. Tsianikas , N. Yousefi , J. Zhou , M. Rodgers , D. W. Coit

Robustness and safety are critical for the trustworthy deployment of deep reinforcement learning. Real-world decision making applications require algorithms that can guarantee robust performance and safety in the presence of general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 James Queeney , Erhan Can Ozcan , Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis , Christos G. Cassandras

Due to the penetration of renewable energy resources and load deviation, uncertainty handling is one of the main challenges for power system; therefore the need for accurate decision-making in a power system under the penetration of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-26 Mohammad Hemmati , Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo , Alireza Soroudi

In this paper we consider a stochastic deployment problem, where a robotic swarm is tasked with the objective of positioning at least one robot at each of a set of pre-assigned targets while meeting a temporal deadline. Travel times and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-11-24 Yin-Lam Chow , Marco Pavone , Brian M. Sadler , Stefano Carpin

We present a method for providing statistical guarantees on runtime safety and goal reachability for integrated planning and control of a class of systems with unknown nonlinear stochastic underactuated dynamics. Specifically, given a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Craig Knuth , Glen Chou , Jamie Reese , Joe Moore

Forecasting accuracy is reliant on the quality of available past data. Data disruptions can adversely affect the quality of the generated model (e.g. unexpected events such as out-of-stock products when forecasting demand). We address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-29 André Baptista , Yassine Baghoussi , Carlos Soares , João Mendes-Moreira , Miguel Arantes

This paper describes a novel approach to planning which takes advantage of decision theory to greatly improve robustness in an uncertain environment. We present an algorithm which computes conditional plans of maximum expected utility. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Stephen G. Pimentel , Lawrence M. Brem

This paper introduces an optimization problem (P) and a solution strategy to design variable-speed-limit controls for a highway that is subject to traffic congestion and uncertain vehicle arrival and departure. By employing a finite…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Dan Li , Dariush Fooladivanda , Sonia Martinez