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Related papers: Multivariate Count Time Series Modelling

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Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

A class of multivariate periodic autoregressive models is proposed where coupling between time series is achieved through linear mean functions. Various response distributions with quadratic mean-variance relationships fit into the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Johannes Bracher , Leonhard Held

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-28 Marta Tallarita , Maria De Iorio , Alessandra Guglielmi , James Malone-Lee

Count time series are widely encountered in practice. As with continuous valued data, many count series have seasonal properties. This paper uses a recent advance in stationary count time series to develop a general seasonal count time…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Jiajie Kong , Robert Lund

Real-world data often exhibits sequential dependence, across diverse domains such as human behavior, medicine, finance, and climate modeling. Probabilistic methods capture the inherent uncertainty associated with prediction in these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-08 Alex Boyd

This article presents a new continuous-time modelling framework for multivariate time series of counts which have an infinitely divisible marginal distribution. The model is based on a mixed moving average process driven by L\'{e}vy noise -…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-11 Almut E. D. Veraart

Latent autoregressive models are useful time series models for the analysis of infectious disease data. Evaluation of the likelihood function of latent autoregressive models is intractable and its approximation through simulation-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-23 Xanthi Pedeli , Cristiano Varin

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 K. Triantafyllopoulos

The thinning-based integer-valued autoregressive moving-average (INARMA) models are popular for count time series. Recently, types of INARMA models have also been developed for count random fields, i.e., for spatial count data located on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Angelika Silbernagel , Christian H. Weiß

In this paper, a new approach to bivariate modeling of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models is proposed. Specifically, we consider the joint modeling of durations and the number of transactions made during the spell. The…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-27 Helton Saulo , Suvra Pal , Roberto Vila

Prediction is a key issue in time series analysis. Just as classical mean regression models, classical autoregressive methods, yielding L$^2$ point-predictions, provide rather poor predictive summaries; a much more informative approach is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-06 Alberto González-Sanz , Marc Hallin , Yisha Yao

The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang

Multivariate count data are defined as the number of items of different categories issued from sampling within a population, which individuals are grouped into categories. The analysis of multivariate count data is a recurrent and crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-17 Pierre Fernique , Jean-Baptiste Durand , Yann Guédon

Multivariate time series is a very active topic in the research community and many machine learning tasks are being used in order to extract information from this type of data. However, in real-world problems data has missing values, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-26 Samuel Arcadinho , Paulo Mateus

Autoregressive models are ubiquitous tools for the analysis of time series in many domains such as computational neuroscience and biomedical engineering. In these domains, data is, for example, collected from measurements of brain activity.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-02 Jonas F. Haderlein , Andre D. H. Peterson , Anthony N. Burkitt , Iven M. Y. Mareels , David B. Grayden

A large number and diversity of techniques have been offered in the literature in recent years for solving multi-label classification tasks, including classifier chains where predictions are cascaded to other models as additional features.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-19 Jesse Read , Luca Martino

In many applications, data are observed as matrices with temporal dependence. Matrix-variate time series modeling is a new branch of econometrics. Although stylized facts in several fields, the existing models do not account for regime…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-19 Andrea Bucci

In this paper the problems of the retrospective analysis of models with time-varying structure are considered. These models include contamination models with randomly switching parameters and multivariate classification models with an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-31 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

Autoregressive models are a class of time series models that are important in both applied and theoretical statistics. Typically, inferential devices such as confidence sets and hypothesis tests for time series models require nuanced…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Hien Duy Nguyen

Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-07 Matteo Maggiolo , Gerasimos Spanakis