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Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate causal effects across a variety of domains. However, classical causal inference approaches rely on critical independence assumptions that are violated by network interference, when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-18 Mayleen Cortez , Matthew Eichhorn , Christina Lee Yu

Empirical researchers routinely invoke the no-interference or \textit{individualistic treatment response} (ITR) assumption to identify causal effects in observational studies, despite concerns that interference across units may arise in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-27 Julius Owusu , Monika Avila Márquez

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

The field of precision medicine aims to tailor treatment based on patient-specific factors in a reproducible way. To this end, estimating an optimal individualized treatment regime (ITR) that recommends treatment decisions based on patient…

This paper establishes sufficient conditions for the identification of the marginal treatment effects with multivalued treatments. Our model is based on a multinomial choice model with utility maximization. Our MTE generalizes the MTE…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-30 Toshiki Tsuda

Deep learning models excel in computer vision tasks but often fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) domains. Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) aims to address OOD generalization by learning domain-invariant features. However, IRM…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Yaoyao Zhu , Xiuding Cai , Yingkai Wang , Dong Miao , Zhongliang Fu , Xu Luo

Emerging diseases present challenges in symptom recognition and timely clinical intervention due to limited available information. An effective prognostic model could assist physicians in making accurate diagnoses and designing personalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Zhongji Zhang , Yuhang Wang , Yinghao Zhu , Xinyu Ma , Yasha Wang , Junyi Gao , Liantao Ma , Wen Tang , Xiaoyun Zhang , Ling Wang

Practical and ethical constraints often require the use of observational data for causal inference, particularly in medicine and social sciences. Yet, observational datasets are prone to confounding, potentially compromising the validity of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-04 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Julia Kostin , Javier Abad , Yixin Wang , Fanny Yang

In many medical and business applications, researchers are interested in estimating individualized treatment effects using data from a randomized experiment. For example in medical applications, doctors learn the treatment effects from…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-01 Kevin Wu Han , Han Wu

Estimation of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) is an important topic of causal inference in econometrics and statistics. This problem seems to be often treated as a simple modification or extension of that of estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Heng Shu , Zhiqiang Tan

Recently, from the personalized medicine perspective, there has been an increased demand to identify subgroups of subjects for whom treatment is effective. Consequently, the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-02 Ryoma Hieda , Shintaro Yuki , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa

Uncertainty quantification for individual treatment effects (ITEs) is a daunting challenge in causal inference. Motivated by recent advances in conformal prediction, several works aim to construct distribution-free prediction sets for ITEs…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Chongguang Tao , Zheng Zhou , Yuhong Yang

Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and financial decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Carolyn Kim , Osbert Bastani

This paper develops a novel nonparametric identification method for treatment effects in settings where individuals self-select into treatment sequences. I propose an identification strategy which relies on a dynamic version of standard…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-05 Pedro Picchetti

Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is meaningful and practical in healthcare. Existing work mainly relies on the strong ignorability assumption that no hidden confounders exist, which may lead to bias…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-16 Ruoqi Liu , Changchang Yin , Ping Zhang

Treatment effect estimation, which helps understand the causality between treatment and outcome variable, is a central task in decision-making across various domains. While most studies focus on treatment effect estimation on individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Shonosuke Harada , Ryosuke Yoneda , Hisashi Kashima

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in network settings is complicated by interference, meaning that the outcome of an instance can be influenced by the treatment status of others. Existing causal machine learning approaches usually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Daan Caljon , Jente Van Belle , Wouter Verbeke

This paper studies treatment effect models in which individuals are classified into unobserved groups based on heterogeneous treatment rules. Using a finite mixture approach, we propose a marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework in which…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

Randomization inference is a powerful tool in early phase vaccine trials when estimating the causal effect of a regimen against a placebo or another regimen. Randomization-based inference often focuses on testing either Fisher's sharp null…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-27 Zhe Chen , Xinran Li , Bo Zhang

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) based machine learning algorithms have suffered from weak generalization performance on data obtained from out-of-distribution (OOD). To address this problem, Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) objective was…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-25 Jun-Hyun Bae , Inchul Choi , Minho Lee