Related papers: Statistical inference for ARTFIMA time series with…
In this paper, we present the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator for autoregressive (AR for short) models subject to Markovian changes in regime under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily…
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for…
A time-changed mixed fractional Brownian motion is an iterated process constructed as the superposition of mixed fractional Brownian motion and other process. In this paper we consider mixed fractional Brownian motion of parameters a, b and…
We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…
Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…
Generalizations of tempered fractional Brownian from single index to two indices and variable index or tempered multifractional Brownian motion are studied. Tempered fractional Brownian motion and tempered multifractional Brownian motion…
We introduce methods and theory for fractionally cointegrated curve time series. We develop a variance-ratio test to determine the dimensions associated with the nonstationary and stationary subspaces. For each subspace, we apply a local…
We find the information geometry of tempered stable processes. Beginning with the derivation of $\alpha$-divergence between two tempered stable processes, we obtain the corresponding Fisher information matrices and the $\alpha$-connections…
In this paper we investigate the dependence structure for PARMA models (i.e. ARMA models with periodic coefficients) with symmetric alpha-stable innovations. In this case the covariance function is not defined and therefore other measures…
This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…
We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model…
Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention, leading to the de-velopment of a wide range of approaches, from traditional statistical meth-ods to advanced deep learning models. Among them, the Auto-Regressive Integrated…
Fractional tempered stable motion (fTSm)} is defined and studied. FTSm has the same covariance structure as fractional Brownian motion, while having tails heavier than Gaussian but lighter than stable. Moreover, in short time it is close to…
The process of pattern formation for a multi-species model anchored on a time varying network is studied. A non homogeneous perturbation superposed to an homogeneous stable fixed point can amplify, as follows a novel mechanism of…
An extended ensemble Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed by introducing a violation of the detailed balance condition to the update scheme of the inverse temperature in simulated tempering. Our method, irreversible simulated tempering, is…
Variational inference has had great success in scaling approximate Bayesian inference to big data by exploiting mini-batch training. To date, however, this strategy has been most applicable to models of independent data. We propose an…
Long memory in the sense of slowly decaying autocorrelations is a stylized fact in many time series from economics and finance. The fractionally integrated process is the workhorse model for the analysis of these time series. Nevertheless,…
This paper reviews recent developments of robust estimation in linear time series models, with short and long memory correlation structures, in the presence of additive outliers. Based on the manuscripts Fajardo et al. (2009) and…
Simulated and parallel tempering are families of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms where a temperature parameter is varied during the simulation to overcome bottlenecks to convergence due to multimodality. In this work we introduce and…
We prove that a time series satisfying a (linear) multivariate autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model satisfies the same model assumption in the reversed time direction, too, if all innovations are normally distributed. This…