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We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Alfredo Lopez , Florian Sobieczky

Explainable AI is a crucial component for edge services, as it ensures reliable decision making based on complex AI models. Surrogate models are a prominent approach of XAI where human-interpretable models, such as a linear regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Foivos Charalampakos , Thomas Tsouparopoulos , Iordanis Koutsopoulos

In explainable AI, surrogate models are commonly evaluated by their fidelity to a neural network's predictions. Fidelity, however, measures alignment to a learned model rather than alignment to the data-generating signal underlying the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jackson Eshbaugh

The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into various industries has introduced new challenges in governance and regulation, particularly regarding the understanding of complex AI systems. A critical demand from decision-makers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Cristian Munoz , Kleyton da Costa , Bernardo Modenesi , Adriano Koshiyama

Many problems in computer vision have recently been tackled using models whose predictions cannot be easily interpreted, most commonly deep neural networks. Surrogate explainers are a popular post-hoc interpretability method to further…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Ricardo Kleinlein , Alexander Hepburn , Raúl Santos-Rodríguez , Fernando Fernández-Martínez

Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, the loss ignores misspecification, where models are imperfect. Parameter uncertainties from Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-07 Thomas D Swinburne , Danny Perez

Interpretability methods that utilise local surrogate models (e.g. LIME) are very good at describing the behaviour of the predictive model at a point of interest, but they are not guaranteed to extrapolate to the local region surrounding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Marton Havasi , Sonali Parbhoo , Finale Doshi-Velez

Taking agent-based models (ABM) closer to the data is an open challenge. This paper explicitly tackles parameter space exploration and calibration of ABMs combining supervised machine-learning and intelligent sampling to build a surrogate…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-07 Francesco Lamperti , Andrea Roventini , Amir Sani

We establish a formal connection between the decades-old surrogate outcome model in biostatistics and economics and the emerging field of prediction-powered inference (PPI). The connection treats predictions from pre-trained models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Tijana Zrnic

With the ever-increasing use of complex machine learning models in critical applications within the finance domain, explaining the decisions of the model has become a necessity. With applications spanning from credit scoring to credit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-14 Aditya Lahiri , Narayanan Unny Edakunni

Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers fast, scalable approximations to posterior densities by training neural surrogates on data simulated from the statistical model. However, ABI methods are highly sensitive to model misspecification:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-27 Šimon Kucharský , Aayush Mishra , Daniel Habermann , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Local surrogate approaches for explaining machine learning model predictions have appealing properties, such as being model-agnostic and flexible in their modelling. Several methods exist that fit this description and share this goal.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Rafael Poyiadzi , Xavier Renard , Thibault Laugel , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Marcin Detyniecki

Explaining with examples is an intuitive way to justify AI decisions. However, it is challenging to understand how a decision value should change relative to the examples with many features differing by large amounts. We draw from real…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Yifan Zhang , Tianle Ren , Fei Wang , Brian Y Lim

Conventionally, AI models are thought to trade off explainability for lower accuracy. We develop a training strategy that not only leads to a more explainable AI system for object classification, but as a consequence, suffers no perceptible…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-17 Andrea Zunino , Sarah Adel Bargal , Riccardo Volpi , Mehrnoosh Sameki , Jianming Zhang , Stan Sclaroff , Vittorio Murino , Kate Saenko

Explaining the decisions of models is becoming pervasive in the image processing domain, whether it is by using post-hoc methods or by creating inherently interpretable models. While the widespread use of surrogate explainers is a welcome…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Alexander Hepburn , Raul Santos-Rodriguez

Explainable artificial intelligence provides tools to better understand predictive models and their decisions, but many such methods are limited to producing insights with respect to a single class. When generating explanations for several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Kacper Sokol , Peter Flach

Explainable AI is an emerging field providing solutions for acquiring insights into automated systems' rationale. It has been put on the AI map by suggesting ways to tackle key ethical and societal issues. Existing explanation techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Ioannis Mollas , Nick Bassiliades , Grigorios Tsoumakas

Explainable AI provides insight into the "why" for model predictions, offering potential for users to better understand and trust a model, and to recognize and correct AI predictions that are incorrect. Prior research on human and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Yasmeen Alufaisan , Laura R. Marusich , Jonathan Z. Bakdash , Yan Zhou , Murat Kantarcioglu

Explainable models in Artificial Intelligence are often employed to ensure transparency and accountability of AI systems. The fidelity of the explanations are dependent upon the algorithms used as well as on the fidelity of the data. Many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-31 Muhammad Aurangzeb Ahmad , Carly Eckert , Ankur Teredesai

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods are designed to provide information about how AI-based models make predictions. In healthcare, there is a widespread expectation that these methods will provide relevant and accurate…

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