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Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is critical in domains such as personalized medicine, resource allocation, and policy evaluation. A central challenge lies in identifying subpopulations that respond differently to interventions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-18 Zilong Wang , Turgay Ayer , Shihao Yang

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

Treatment effect estimates are often available from randomized controlled trials as a single average treatment effect for a certain patient population. Estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are more useful for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-12 Wouter A. C. van Amsterdam , Rajesh Ranganath

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are increasingly estimated from observational data and used to guide policy and individualized treatment decisions. Before such estimates can be trusted in practice, their predictive fitness…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Bosen Cui , Yuhong Yang

We study the assessment of the accuracy of heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, where the HTE is not directly observable so standard computation of prediction errors is not applicable. To tackle the difficulty, we propose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-10 Zijun Gao , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

There is growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneous treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. We describe a number of meta-algorithms that can take advantage of any supervised learning or regression method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-18 Sören R. Künzel , Jasjeet S. Sekhon , Peter J. Bickel , Bin Yu

Existing weighting methods for treatment effect estimation are often built upon the idea of propensity scores or covariate balance. They usually impose strong assumptions on treatment assignment or outcome model to obtain unbiased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Dongcheng Zhang , Kunpeng Zhang

Given two possible treatments, there may exist subgroups who benefit greater from one treatment than the other. This problem is relevant to the field of marketing, where treatments may correspond to different ways of selling a product. It…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-16 Derek Feng , Xiaofei Wang

Causal inference has gained much popularity in recent years, with interests ranging from academic, to industrial, to educational, and all in between. Concurrently, the study and usage of neural networks has also grown profoundly (albeit at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-07 Demetrios Papakostas , Andrew Herren , P. Richard Hahn , Francisco Castillo

Randomization tests and flexible treatment-effect models offer complementary strengths for analyzing data from randomized panel experiments: the former provide valid inference under the known assignment mechanism, while the latter can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fangnan Zheng , Yao Zhang

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Recent years have seen a swell in methods that focus on estimating "individual treatment effects". These methods are often focused on the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under ignorability assumptions. This paper hopes to draw…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-12 Brian G. Vegetabile

Individualized randomized experiments are central to online platforms for optimizing personalized decisions in complex environments. In two-sided markets, however, standard treatment effect estimation is often invalid due to strong temporal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Shuguang Yu , Ting Li , Yuchen Lu , Chengchun Shi , Fan Zhou , Zhichao Zou , Peng Zhen , Hongtu Zhu

Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation in high-stakes applications demands models that simultaneously optimize precision, interpretability, and calibration. Many existing tree-based causal inference techniques, however, exhibit high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Yichen Liu

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-24 Xiaoqing Tan

Estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) from observational data is challenging due to confounding bias. Most studies tackle this bias by balancing distributions globally, but ignore individual heterogeneity and fail to capture the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Fuyuan Cao , Jiaxuan Zhang , Xiaoli Li

In this paper we present a data-adaptive estimation procedure for estimation of average treatment effects in a time-to-event setting based on generalized random forests. In these kinds of settings, the definition of causal effect parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-28 Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Claus T. Ekstrøm , Lars V. Kessing , Thomas A. Gerds
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