Related papers: Sensitivity analysis of an integrated climate-econ…
Much work has been done on relaxation oscillations and other simple oscillators in conceptual climate models. However, the oscillatory patterns in climate data are often more complicated than what can be described by such mechanisms. This…
Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…
Resilience in coupled systems is increasingly critical in addressing global challenges such as climate change and pandemics. These systems show unpredictable behaviour due to dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty across spatiotemporal…
The exceptional benefits of wind power as an environmentally responsible renewable energy resource have led to an increasing penetration of wind energy in today's power systems. This trend has started to reshape the paradigms of power…
Parameters in climate models are usually calibrated manually, exploiting only small subsets of the available data. This precludes both optimal calibration and quantification of uncertainties. Traditional Bayesian calibration methods that…
We combine high-dimensional factor models with fractional integration methods and derive models where nonstationary, potentially cointegrated data of different persistence is modelled as a function of common fractionally integrated factors.…
In climate science, the tuning of climate models is a computationally intensive problem due to the combination of the high-dimensionality of the system state and long integration times. Supermodelling is a technique which has shown the…
Islands are diversity hotspots and vulnerable to environmental degradation, climate variations, land use changes and societal crises. These factors can exhibit interactive impacts on ecosystem services. The study reviewed a large number of…
Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…
An innovative method is proposed to construct a quantile dependence system for inflation and money growth. By considering all quantiles and leveraging a novel notion of quantile sensitivity, the method allows the assessment of changes in…
Panel data analysis is an important topic in statistics and econometrics. Traditionally, in panel data analysis, all individuals are assumed to share the same unknown parameters, e.g. the same coefficients of covariates when the linear…
High-resolution gridded climate data are readily available from multiple sources, yet climate research and decision-making increasingly require country and region-specific climate information weighted by socio-economic factors. Moreover,…
Industrial ecosystems are coupled with natural systems through utilization of feedstocks and waste disposal. To ensure resilience in production of industrial systems under the threat of climate change scenarios, it is necessary to evaluate…
A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the…
In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can…
Smart active agents must allocate finite energetic resources across distinct functions, yet the underlying thermodynamic trade-offs remain poorly understood. Here, we introduce a minimal model of a self-steering particle with an internal…
A system of five ordinary differential equations is studied which combines the Lorenz-84 model for the atmosphere and a box model for the ocean. The behaviour of this system is studied as a function of the coupling parameters. For most…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
There is great uncertainty about future climate conditions and the appropriate policies for managing interactions between the climate and the economy. We develop a multidimensional computational model to examine how uncertainties and risks…