Related papers: Yule's "nonsense correlation" for Gaussian random …
In this paper, we resolve a longstanding open statistical problem. The problem is to mathematically confirm Yule's 1926 empirical finding of "nonsense correlation" (\cite{Yule}). We do so by analytically determining the second moment of the…
In 1926, G. Udny Yule considered the following: given a sequence of pairs of random variables $\{X_k,Y_k \}$ ($k=1,2, \ldots, n$), and letting $X_i = S_i$ and $Y_ i= S'_i$ where $S_i$ and $S'_i$ are the partial sums of two independent…
This paper begins with a study of the exact distribution of the empirical correlation of two independent AR(1) processes with Gaussian increments. We proceed to develop rates of convergence for the distribution of the scaled empirical…
We study the continuous-time version of the empirical correlation coefficient between the paths of two possibly correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, known as Yule's nonsense correlation for these paths. Using sharp tools from the…
We study the Wasserstein distance $W_2$ for Gaussian samples. We establish the exact rate of convergence $\sqrt{\log\log n/n}$ of the expected value of the $W_2$ distance between the empirical and true $c.d.f.$'s for the normal…
Fix an irrational number $\alpha$. Let $X_1,X_2,\cdots$ be independent, identically distributed, integer-valued random variables with characteristic function $\varphi$, and let $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i$ be the partial sums. Consider the random…
We construct a coupling between the random walk composed of L\'evy area increments from a $d$-dimensional Brownian motion and a random walk composed of quadratic polynomials of Gaussian random variables. This coupling construction is used…
In this paper, we establish sharp upper and lower bounds on the convergence rate of the empirical measures of point processes under the Wasserstein distance. To this end, we first introduce a new metric on the space of counting measures…
We study the behavior of the random walk in a continuum independent long-range percolation model, in which two given vertices $x$ and $y$ are connected with probability that asymptotically behaves like $|x-y|^{-\alpha}$ with $\alpha>d$,…
Chen [Ann. Appl. Probab. {\bf 11} (2001), 1242--1262] derived exact convergence rates in a central limit theorem and a local limit theorem for a supercritical branching Wiener process.We extend Chen's results to a branching random walk…
Estimating the rate of convergence of the empirical measure of an i.i.d. sample to the reference measure is a classical problem in probability theory. Extending recent results of Ambrosio, Stra and Trevisan on 2-dimensional manifolds, in…
These notes were written for the mini-course "Extrema of log-correlated random variables: Principles and Examples" at the Introductory School held in January 2015 at the Centre International de Rencontres Math\'ematiques in Marseille. There…
We construct a continuous-time non-commutative random walk on $U(\mathfrak{gl}_N)$ with dilation maps $U(\mathfrak{gl}_N)\rightarrow L^2(U(N))^{\otimes\infty}$. This is an analog of a continuous-time non-commutative random walk on the group…
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the distribution distance between random vectors derived from the magnitude of the analytic wavelet transform of the squared envelopes of Gaussian processes and their large-scale limits. When the…
The Wasserstein distance between two probability measures on a metric space is a measure of closeness with applications in statistics, probability, and machine learning. In this work, we consider the fundamental question of how quickly the…
This paper deals with the problem of quantifying the approximation a probability measure by means of an empirical (in a wide sense) random probability measure, depending on the first n terms of a sequence of random elements. In Section 2,…
We calculate the two-point correlation function <x(t2)x(t1)> for a subdiffusive continuous time random walk in a parabolic potential, generalizing well-known results for the single-time statistics to two times. A closed analytical…
In this paper, we study the distribution of the so-called "Yule's nonsense correlation statistic" on a time interval $[0,T]$ for a time horizon $T>0$ , when $T$ is large, for a pair $(X_{1},X_{2})$ of independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck…
The autocovariance and cross-covariance functions naturally appear in many time series procedures (e.g., autoregression or prediction). Under assumptions, empirical versions of the autocovariance and cross-covariance are asymptotically…
We consider point process convergence for sequences of iid random walks. The objective is to derive asymptotic theory for the largest extremes of these random walks. We show convergence of the maximum random walk to the Gumbel or the…