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Causal inference on a population of units connected through a network often presents technical challenges, including how to account for interference. In the presence of local interference, for instance, potential outcomes of a unit depend…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-02 Laura Forastiere , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Fabrizia Mealli

Additive noise models (ANMs) are an important setting studied in causal inference. Most of the existing works on ANMs assume causal sufficiency, i.e., there are no unobserved confounders. This paper focuses on confounded ANMs, where a set…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-16 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Mahsa Ghasemi , Murat Kocaoglu

Scholars from diverse fields increasingly rely on high-frequency spatio-temporal data. Yet, causal inference with these data remains challenging due to spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. We develop methods to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Lingxiao Zhou , Kosuke Imai , Jason Lyall , Georgia Papadogeorgou

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Christos Louizos , Uri Shalit , Joris Mooij , David Sontag , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato

When decision-makers can directly intervene, policy evaluation algorithms give valid causal estimates. In off-policy evaluation (OPE), there may exist unobserved variables that both impact the dynamics and are used by the unknown behavior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-05 David Bruns-Smith

When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-02 Alexander W. Levis , Matteo Bonvini , Zhenghao Zeng , Luke Keele , Edward H. Kennedy

Inferring the heterogeneous treatment effect is a fundamental problem in the sciences and commercial applications. In this paper, we focus on estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), that is, the difference in the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-23 Haomiao Meng , Xingye Qiao

While sample sizes in randomized clinical trials are large enough to estimate the average treatment effect well, they are often insufficient for estimation of treatment-covariate interactions critical to studying data-driven precision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-22 Steve Yadlowsky , Fabio Pellegrini , Federica Lionetto , Stefan Braune , Lu Tian

Competing risk is a common phenomenon when dealing with time-to-event outcomes in biostatistical applications. An attractive estimand in this setting is the "number of life-years lost due to a specific cause of death", Andersen et al.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

From personalised medicine to targeted advertising, it is an inherent task to provide a sequence of decisions with historical covariates and outcome data. This requires understanding of both the dynamics and heterogeneity of treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

Confounding bias and selection bias bring two significant challenges to the validity of conclusions drawn from applied causal inference. The latter can stem from informative missingness, such as in cases of attrition. We introduce the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Johan de Aguas , Johan Pensar , Tomás Varnet Pérez , Guido Biele

We develop new econometric methods for estimation and inference in high-dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Our approach can be regarded as a non-trivial extension of the very popular common correlated effects…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-11 Maximilian Ruecker , Michael Vogt , Oliver Linton , Christopher Walsh

We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding. Previous approaches, which assume unconfoundedness, i.e., that no unobserved confounders affect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou

Causal understanding is a fundamental goal of evidence-based medicine. When randomization is impossible, causal inference methods allow the estimation of treatment effects from retrospective analysis of observational data. However, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Samuel Lee , Zach Wood-Doughty

Individual treatment effect (ITE) is often regarded as the ideal target of inference in causal analyses and has been the focus of several recent studies. In this paper, we describe the intrinsic limits regarding what can be learned…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Zhehao Zhang , Thomas S. Richardson

For treatment effects - one of the core issues in modern econometric analysis - prediction and estimation are two sides of the same coin. As it turns out, machine learning methods are the tool for generalized prediction models. Combined…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-27 Daniel Jacob

With reference to a binary outcome and a binary mediator, we derive identification bounds for natural effects under a reduced set of assumptions. Specifically, no assumptions about confounding are made that involve the outcome; we only…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Marco Doretti , Elena Stanghellini