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For overdamped Langevin systems subjected to weak thermal noise and nonconservative forces, we establish a connection between Freidlin-Wentzell large deviations theory and stochastic thermodynamics. First, we derive a series expansion of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-13 Davide Santolin , Nahuel Freitas , Massimiliano Esposito , Gianmaria Falasco

First-passage probability estimation of high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems is a significant task to be solved in many science and engineering fields, but remains still an open challenge. The present paper develops a novel…

Freidlin and Wentzell characterized the logarithmic asymptotics of the exit time from a basin of attraction for a finite dimensional diffusion with small noise. After that, several authors studied the same properties for exit problems…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Michael Salins

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-06-14 John Strahan , Justin Finkel , Aaron R. Dinner , Jonathan Weare

This paper obtains asymptotic results for parametric inference using prediction-based estimating functions when the data are high frequency observations of a diffusion process with an infinite time horizon. Specifically, the data are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-27 Emil S. Jørgensen , Michael Sørensen

We study maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes when the coefficients are nonrandom and observation occurs in nonsynchronous manner. The problem of nonsynchronous observations is important when we consider the analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Teppei Ogihara

We investigate stochastic averaging theory for locally Lipschitz discrete-time nonlinear systems with stochastic perturbation and its applications to convergence analysis of discrete-time stochastic extremum seeking algorithms. Firstly, by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-02-18 Shu-Jun Liu , Miroslav Krstic

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-03-25 Jaume Masoliver , Josep Perello

We study the asymptotics of a two-dimensional stochastic differential system with a degenerate diffusion matrix. This system describes the dynamics of a population where individuals contribute to the degradation of their environment through…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-05-06 Pierre Collet , Claire Ecotière , Sylvie Méléard

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Francesco Ragone , Freddy Bouchet

Stochastic differential equations provide a powerful tool for modelling dynamic phenomena affected by random noise. In case of repeated observations of time series for several experimental units, it is often the case that some of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-06 Fernando Baltazar-Larios , Mogens Bladt , Michael Sørensen

A finite dimensional abstract approximation and convergence theory is developed for estimation of the distribution of random parameters in infinite dimensional discrete time linear systems with dynamics described by regularly dissipative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-15 Melike Sirlanci , Susan E. Luczak , I. Gary Rosen

This work employs variational techniques to revisit and expand the construction and analysis of extreme value processes. These techniques permit a novel study of spatial statistics of the location of minimizing events. We develop integral…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-10 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Ryan Murray , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

This paper focuses on systems of nonlinear second-order stochastic differential equations with multi-scales. The motivation for our study stems from mathematical physics and statistical mechanics, for examples, Langevin dynamics and…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-08 Nhu N. Nguyen , George Yin

We present a computational alternative to probabilistic simulations for non-smooth stochastic dynamical systems that are prevalent in engineering mechanics. As examples, we target (1) stochastic elasto-plastic problems, which involve…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-23 Laurent Mertz , Georg Stadler , Jonathan Wylie

The theory of large deviations deals with the probabilities of rare events (or fluctuations) that are exponentially small as a function of some parameter, e.g., the number of random components of a system, the time over which a stochastic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-03-01 Hugo Touchette

Extreme value functionals of stochastic processes are inverse functionals of the first passage time -- a connection that renders their probability distribution functions equivalent. Here, we deepen this link and establish a framework for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-30 David Hartich , Aljaz Godec

For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameter is totally different in the stable, unstable, and explosive cases. Notwithstanding of this trichotomy, we investigate…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-28 Bernard Bercu , Laure Coutin , Nicolas Savy

This thesis is devoted to the study of extreme value statistics in stochastic processes and their applications. In the first part, we obtain exact analytical results on the extreme value statistics of both discrete-time and continuous-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-10-24 Benjamin De Bruyne

We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-04-07 Anupam Kundu , Sanjib Sabhapandit , Abhishek Dhar