Related papers: From viral evolution to spatial contagion: a biolo…
Among the statistical tools for online information diffusion modeling, both epidemic models and Hawkes point processes are popular choices. The former originate from epidemiology, and consider information as a viral contagion which spreads…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
We examine how spatial heterogeneity combines with mobility network structure to influence vector-borne disease dynamics. Specifically, we consider a Ross-Macdonald-type disease model on $n$ spatial locations that are coupled by host…
The study of infectious disease epidemiology for multi-type disease pathogens requires modelling techniques that account for the complex interactions existing between strains across geography and time. In this paper, we propose a novel…
The endogenous adaptation of agents, that may adjust their local contact network in response to the risk of being infected, can have the perverse effect of increasing the overall systemic infectiveness of a disease. We study a dynamical…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses…
A common theme among the proposed models for network epidemics is the assumption that the propagating object, i.e., a virus or a piece of information, is transferred across the nodes without going through any modification or evolution.…
Typically, contagion strength is modeled by a transmission rate $\lambda$, whereby all nodes in a network are treated uniformly in a mean-field approximation. However, local agents react differently to the same contagion based on their…
We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time…
In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework that governs the evolution of epidemic dynamics, encompassing both intra-population dynamics and inter-population mobility within a metapopulation network. By linearizing this dynamical…
Models of disease spreading are critical for predicting infection growth in a population and evaluating public health policies. However, standard models typically represent the dynamics of disease transmission between individuals using…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and…
Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual…
Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of…
The spread of infectious diseases, rumors, fashions, innovations are complex contagion processes, embedded both in networked and spatial contexts. Here we investigate the pattern dynamics of a complex contagion, where two agents, say $A$…
We investigate the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered contagion dynamics in a system of self-propelled particles with polar alignment. Using agent-based simulations, we analyze the outbreak process for different combinations of the spatial…