Related papers: Null expectations and null hypothesis testing for …
We consider the problem of parametric statistical inference when likelihood computations are prohibitively expensive but sampling from the model is possible. Several so-called likelihood-free methods have been developed to perform inference…
Hypothesis testing methods that do not rely on exact distribution assumptions have been emerging lately. The method of sign-perturbed sums (SPS) is capable of characterizing confidence regions with exact confidence levels for linear…
Determining spatial distributions of species and communities are key objectives of ecology and conservation. Joint species distribution models use multi-species detection-nondetection data to estimate species and community distributions.…
The effective sample size (ESS) measures the informational value of a probability distribution in terms of an equivalent number of study participants. The ESS plays a crucial role in estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information…
Ecological patterns arise from the interplay of many different processes, and yet the emergence of consistent phenomena across a diverse range of ecological systems suggests that many patterns may in part be determined by statistical or…
This paper provides an entire inference procedure for the autoregressive model under (conditional) heteroscedasticity of unknown form with a finite variance. We first establish the asymptotic normality of the weighted least absolute…
We propose a general semi-supervised inference framework focused on the estimation of the population mean. As usual in semi-supervised settings, there exists an unlabeled sample of covariate vectors and a labeled sample consisting of…
We wish to estimate the total number of classes in a population based on sample counts, especially in the presence of high latent diversity. Drawing on probability theory that characterizes distributions on the integers by ratios of…
The recently proposed statistical finite element (statFEM) approach synthesises measurement data with finite element models and allows for making predictions about the unknown true system response. We provide a probabilistic error analysis…
Abundance estimation from capture-recapture data is of great importance in many disciplines. Analysis of capture-recapture data is often complicated by the existence of one-inflation and heterogeneity problems. Simultaneously taking these…
Many fundamental parameters of biological systems -- eg. productivity, population sizes and biomass -- are most effectively expressed in absolute terms. In contrast to proportional data (eg. percentages), absolute values provide…
Conducting valid statistical analyses is challenging in the presence of missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data, where the missingness mechanism is dependent on the missing values themselves even conditioned on the observed data. Here, we…
In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects…
The efficient collection of samples is an important factor in outdoor information gathering applications on account of high sampling costs such as time, energy, and potential destruction to the environment. Utilization of available a-priori…
We introduce the first analytical model of asymmetric community dynamics to yield Hubbell's neutral theory in the limit of functional equivalence among all species. Our focus centers on an asymmetric extension of Hubbell's local community…
Assuming X is a random vector and A a non-invertible matrix, one sometimes need to perform inference while only having access to samples of Y = AX. The corresponding likelihood is typically intractable. One may still be able to perform…
Sample average approximation (SAA) replaces an intractable expected objective by an empirical average and is a basic device of modern stochastic optimization. We develop a rate theory for optimal values and empirical…
The increased availability of observation data from engineering systems in operation poses the question of how to incorporate this data into finite element models. To this end, we propose a novel statistical construction of the finite…
If predictions for species extinctions hold, then the `tree of life' today may be quite different to that in (say) 100 years. We describe a technique to quantify how much each species is likely to contribute to future biodiversity, as…
While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of…