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In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Nicolas Dewolf

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Learning against label noise is a vital topic to guarantee a reliable performance for deep neural networks. Recent research usually refers to dynamic noise modeling with model output probabilities and loss values, and then separates clean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Yingsong Huang , Bing Bai , Shengwei Zhao , Kun Bai , Fei Wang

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Xing Yan , Yonghua Su , Wenxuan Ma

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Autumn Toney-Wails , Ryan Wails

The design and testing of supervised machine learning models combine two fundamental distributions: (1) the training data distribution (2) the testing data distribution. Although these two distributions are identical and identifiable when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-19 Peyman Tavallali , Hamed Hamze Bajgiran , Danial J. Esaid , Houman Owhadi

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques are frequently used to ascertain output variability in systems with parametric uncertainty. Traditional algorithms for UQ are either system-agnostic and slow (such as Monte Carlo) or fast with…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tuhin Sahai , Jose Miguel Pasini

Large Language Diffusion Models (LLDMs) are emerging as an alternative to autoregressive models, offering faster inference through higher parallelism. Similar to autoregressive LLMs, they remain prone to hallucinations, making reliable…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Artem Vazhentsev , Vladislav Smirnov , David Li , Maxim Panov , Timothy Baldwin , Artem Shelmanov

The burgeoning field of algorithms with predictions studies the problem of using possibly imperfect machine learning predictions to improve online algorithm performance. While nearly all existing algorithms in this framework make no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Bo Sun , Jerry Huang , Nicolas Christianson , Mohammad Hajiesmaili , Adam Wierman , Raouf Boutaba

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Mingda Li , Xinyu Li , Weinan Zhang , Longxuan Ma

AI Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has the potential to improve human decision-making beyond AI predictions alone by providing additional probabilistic information to users. The majority of past research on AI and human decision-making has…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Laura R. Marusich , Jonathan Z. Bakdash , Yan Zhou , Murat Kantarcioglu

Inverse problems play a key role in modern image/signal processing methods. However, since they are generally ill-conditioned or ill-posed due to lack of observations, their solutions may have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Analysing…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-09 Xiaohao Cai , Marcelo Pereyra , Jason D. McEwen

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Jiaxin Zhang

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-stakes settings. We propose a unified conformal prediction framework for infinite-horizon policy evaluation that constructs distribution-free prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Feichen Gan , Youcun Lu , Yingying Zhang , Yukun Liu

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

We introduce a novel approach for calibrating uncertainty quantification (UQ) tailored for multi-modal large language models (LLMs). Existing state-of-the-art UQ methods rely on consistency among multiple responses generated by the LLM on…

In studies ranging from clinical medicine to policy research, complete data are usually available from a population $\mathscr{P}$, but the quantity of interest is often sought for a related but different population $\mathscr{Q}$ which only…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Jiwei Zhao

Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yi Hung Lim