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Ambitious civilizations that expand for resources at an intergalactic scale could be observable from a cosmological distance, but how likely is one to be visible to us? The question comes down to estimating the appearance rate of such…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-02-20 S. Jay Olson

Why did the emergence of our species require a timescale similar to the entire habitable period of our planet? Our late appearance has previously been interpreted by Carter (2008) as evidence that observers typically require a very long…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2016-09-01 Fergus Simpson

The search for life beyond the Earth is the overarching goal of the NASA Astrobiology Program, and it underpins the science of missions that explore the environments of Solar System planets and exoplanets. However, the detection of…

The origin of life and the detection of alien life have historically been treated as separate scientific research problems. However, they are not strictly independent. Here, we discuss the need for a better integration of the sciences of…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-05 Searra Foote , Pritvik Sinhadc , Cole Mathis , Sara Imari Walker

The Zoo Hypothesis posits that we have not detected extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs) because they deliberately prevent us from detecting them. While a valid solution to Fermi's Paradox, it is not particularly amenable to rigorous…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-28 Duncan H Forgan

Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the TESS mission relies on precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-up characterization studies. We investigate ephemeris deterioration for simulated TESS planets…

Motivated by recent developments impacting our view of Fermi's paradox (absence of extraterrestrials and their manifestations from our past light cone), we suggest a reassessment of the problem itself, as well as of strategies employed by…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-09-29 Milan M. Cirkovic , Robert J. Bradbury

In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilisations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of…

Popular Physics · Physics 2020-07-14 Marcelo Lares , José Funes , Luciana Gramajo

Exoplanetary systems are prime targets for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). With the recent uptick in the identification of candidate and confirmed exoplanets through the work of missions like the Transiting Exoplanet…

In the field of Astrobiology, the precise location, prevalence and age of potential extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) have not been explicitly explored. Here, we address these inquiries using an empirical galactic simulation model to…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2021-01-22 Xiang Cai , Jonathan H. Jiang , Kristen A. Fahy , Yuk L. Yung

The Fermi paradox has given rise to various attempts to explain why no evidence of extraterrestrial civilisations was found so far on Earth and in our Solar System. Here, we present a dynamical model for the development of such…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-25 Dominik R. G. Schleicher , Stefano Bovino

Exoplanet hunting efforts have revealed the prevalence of exotic worlds with diverse properties, including Earth-sized bodies, which has fueled our endeavor to search for life beyond the Solar System. Accumulating experiences in…

Given a sufficiently large universe, numerous civilizations almost surely exist. Some of these civilizations will be short-lived and die out relatively early in their development, i.e., before having the chance to spread to other planets.…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-15 Austin Gerig , Ken D. Olum , Alexander Vilenkin

Phylogenetic methods have long been used in biology, and more recently have been extended to other fields - for example, linguistics and technology - to study evolutionary histories. Galaxies also have an evolutionary history, and fall…

Probabilistic arguments about the existence of technological life beyond Earth traditionally refer to the Drake equation to draw possible estimates of the number of technologically advanced civilizations releasing, either intentionally or…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-01 Claudio Grimaldi

For centuries, astronomers have discussed the possibility of inhabited worlds - from Herschel's 18th-century observations suggesting Mars may host life, to the systematic search for technosignatures that began in the 1960s using radio…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-22 Beatriz Villarroel , Wesley A. Watters , Alina Streblyanska , Enrique Solano , Stefan Geier , Lars Mattsson

The SETI Ellipsoid is a strategy for technosignature candidate selection which assumes that extraterrestrial civilizations who have observed a galactic-scale event -- such as supernova 1987A -- may use it as a Schelling point to broadcast…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-20 Bárbara Cabrales , James R. A. Davenport , Sofia Z. Sheikh , Steve Croft , Andrew P. V. Siemion , Daniel Giles , Ann Marie Cody

In this paper we consider the extent to which a lack of observations from SETI may be used to quantify the Fermi paradox. Building on previous research, we construct a geometrical model to compute the probability of at least one detection…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-29 Matthew Civiletti

A period of quenching between the formation of the thick and thin disks of the Milky Way has been recently proposed to explain the observed age-[{\alpha}/Fe] distribution of stars in the solar neighbourhood. However, robust constraints on…

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